NAZ with another U Turn near a Danger Zone. Push Pull price action ended (Thursday), the O/N lift pumps the NAZ pre Friday Open and the BTD/FOMO's step in. Break out from the Diablo TL (the NAZ may retest). I will provide a weekly forecast with limited daily updates until my member/private daily (intraday) service is running. How to play the week: White border box levels are high probability targets, Green lines at value area tops/bottoms, Yellow are KL's targets/opposite direction trades (after confirm), White Strong Long (after confirm). General look Long above 12250 1st and 140 2nd, Short below/near 12700. Yellow arrow is expected range. Chart below will show the typical point movement above/below Diablo (Orange TL).
Note: For those that follow, after 3 years and 500 Daily TV Post's, I will be ending the Daily Forecast & Intraday free service. I am moving to a private service that will use TradingView Charts, including my IDS Indicators. Message me if you have interest. I will continue some weekly post's through the end of March or until new program is ready. Thanks for following and all your support.
Note: For those that follow, after 3 years and 500 Daily TV Post's, I will be ending the Daily Forecast & Intraday free service. I am moving to a private service that will use TradingView Charts, including my IDS Indicators. Message me if you have interest. I will continue some weekly post's through the end of March or until new program is ready. Thanks for following and all your support.
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IDS250, Drop/Pop to 12150-00 may be in the works.
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IDS250, Red lines are TLX's (very reliable reversing targets or targets). NAZ is still is downtrend or may drop some prior to next move higher.
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Falling Bridge update 300 point range.
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Review my 3/1 post, this full move played out on 3/3. The 500 point (3/2 low) move was a set up from 12140. This would make it a 200 point net gain, look for 12140 to be retested when/if 12240 retest does not hold.
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Open Range 12300-12425
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So far the initial drop near KL 12273 moved to TLX 12321 and above, retested TLX and now trying for KL 12425. NAZ is balanced in price and 12360 to 12320 seems to be solid VA Value Area, Expect a Pull Back to mid VA prior or during Open.
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Watch the Channel movement. Or fall out of channel.
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Mid Open Range call, Play range. Balanced day so sideways. Push Pull needs to show up for strong short call.
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Back later, limited calls.
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12425 HIT, may see pull back to 12400 -380.
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12465, Ticks turning negative. Watch for push pull and trail Long.
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12465 did PB to 12380. Look for lift back up some.
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380 retest failure will go to 340
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420 then 470 should 340 hold. 380 - 340 retesting now.
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NAZ back at 12340 and above TLX. Drop test.
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Monday was a balanced day. The stall and Tick change at 12465 will be retested. 12250 should be next support.
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NAZ could not hold in the channel, will use KL's for next few days.
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Washington Street to step in with words to boost the markets back up. Many new followers in past few weeks, so let me explain. The two boxes are Gov't Issued news events (fed day, CPI) that provided all the lift during the period. The follow days after just aimlessly go sideway to lower. Powell talk for 2 days and say whatever, the typical result is a bounce - then drop. The only curveball is the 2 day pop (could be drop offset to Powell Drop?) that lifted the NAZ and yesterday rejection. Anyway, today should stay between 12250 - 12450, at anytime we may see a move in either direction out of this range. The fact that the O/N did not prop is not good for the upside as most of the gains are developed through O/N props prior to the Open Session.
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The best indicator lately is with IDS or range bar charts you can see the push/pull price action show up. This came in yesterday near 12465 and stayed into the close. Do not go Long if you see it after a stalled/failed rally. I was expecting a pop near 12340-80 and since 380 rejected in O/N, the lift may be off/limited. Depends if we see push/pull in regular session.
הערה:
TLX Holding, Drop today and Thursday was Technical bounce with Friday a Short Covering Rally and Monday a Rollover.
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12250 hit
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12170 next
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Got 180 back 250
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stay Short under 250
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250 hit
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250 retest
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TLX then drop
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TLX -250 should be range
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TlX Rejection
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In Range is Strong Short at no Pass of TLX
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Drop seems orderly with limited Push/Pull. P/P needs to get violent for a big drop. Powell just needs to say something like "good inflation" and this will fly up. This could be tomorrow. Above low is next clue and Dead Zone is upward bias.
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Recent TLX rejection is Strong Short test and may try for 12140, weekly low and strong Long.
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12170 Hit
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12210 retest, above 140
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Above 12130 you could try long to 210 and 250. No hit of 130 is signal.
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Getting near a Long trade Zone, look for move back up near 130-100. May be tomorrow or O/N.
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12140 Hit.
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12130-00 may be level to watch.
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KL's for tomorrow and O/N
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Updated O/N Range and KL's for tomorrow 1210 - 1900, Diablo is back in play. Below 12030
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Helpful note: Use a intraday color code for session times. Mark 1st 30m, 9:30 - 12 Chicago CT and final hour. You will notice that the Dead Zone 9:30-12 the NAZ will travel in a range and test for next move. The O/N is similar. Both of these may/will confuse/trick you into changing you direction. 1 way days also have slow to strange DZ's. Today's DZ did provide some points to trade but did set up the Strong Short after trying for the TLX a 2nd time.
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My colors are below, I break out the 1st 30 into 2 15m, DZ, close and O/N.
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Tuesday O/N 1st moves, 1 will play then target 2nd arrow.
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That did work out well, look Long today above 12140 or weekly low forecasted range. May update some later, if I can. Will be in and out of office today.
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Open Range today, 12140 will be retested. New follower's, take profit at targets and reload. The only way to play this index.
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12150 retested, may try for 12180-85, no pass look short.
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12150 retest hit 185, range is 12220 to 12150, needs to break out.
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1st move may be to 12240 should NAZ stay above 12160
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12100 Long entry mentioned yesterday and 160 above did get to 12220, closing Longs.
Will reload on Pull Backs.
Will reload on Pull Backs.
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PB to 210 and 170 is likely.
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210 hit
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Play DZ Range.
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12170 hit
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12150 1st target, 12110 2nd
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Careful on Long DZ with typical final move higher, may drop. 160 did pop. Long above high and Short below. 12294 target high
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DZ will try and clean out stops and then redirect. Drop to 160 was Long stop clean out and doing it again.
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Inside Open range 1st 30M, 12130 is likely by EOD. Back Later.
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DZ Whipsaw, no real change/high sine 1st 2 minutes of Open.
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180 is POC, I posted this pre Open and bottom may be hit. 12160, mentioned above is Long. I did not think that it would look like a flat edge, kind of strange how it is holding. Feel break blow will drop to 12075.
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Range now is 12110 - 12230, NAZ will try for one of these.
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100 point range day, next move will be a big one. Most likely in next day or so.
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NAZ hit and closed at 12230, O/N will prop, lower range is 12110 should a pass above 12230 fail. Most likely the NAZ will stay above 12110 and head up until Friday morning.
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Look 1st for PB to 12180, then 110. last 2 days may be a sideways MOP up for a Long Run Up. No PB, then O/N Prop Magic is all over it.
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PB to 12180 has retested for pop back up. Looking for O/N Prop rally into tomorrow. 12110 would be next add with stop 30 back. Should see pop at EU Open, this is how it is usually done. Only trade if you can loose the Stop on this as I just going with a pattern trade or wild hair out of my (you know what). Will check in the morning. You should have the points to spare on this, need to do these from time to time.
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NAZ will try for 12295 or 12125 next. Kind of how it works. May hit 12125 then bounce up or hit 12295 then drop to 12125.
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12140 held and w on 30M, should go back to 12210
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12160 is KL for NAZ to stay above.
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The idea of a Long is based on the Turd move yesterday. All buying and no selling. This was a Prop Drop Offset to counter this move. NAZ has held at 12140-60 and seems that it is being held up, just should of dropped by now. Or, it is going to seriously tank.
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Range for Open and KL's
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12210 Hit
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NAZ got to 12275, near Long target of 294. Expect some pull back and the O/N high may be the high of the day.
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12290 hit, watch drop here
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may see 170 retest under 12290, Look Long and wait for DZ Prop action to continue.
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TLX Hit
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12420 is doable, go back to my statement about O/N inti Friday.
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Take Profit on Long at 12320 and above for now. 320 should be stop on Long, may see PB to 290
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Today a PB may not return back up so easily. Back later, Out for rest of morning.
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12290 PB, may go to 240 next.
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12350 - 12240 is range.
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Heavy Push/Pull, may see quick drop if Ticks stay negative.
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12245 Hit
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12280 retest for Long or Short at rejection.
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12280 retest from 240, needs to stay above.
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12280 rejected, range is 240-280
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240-280 is a battle between 2 value area levels, move out will be big.
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Below 12108 is outside day reversal, may see this by EOD.
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Just a wicked day. Now under Bottom 1st 30M.
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Near PB at 12170, mentioned earlier, May Bounce here.
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Crazy but go back to O/N play of 294 or 110, mentioned that whichever was hit 1st would try the other. That may be playing out here. If 12110 does get hit, look for a bounce.
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Its a Flash Crash!!
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12110 HIT
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Try a Long at 12075 and above. 50 point stop. This could be drop test prior to move back up, I have seen these before. Worth a try and only if you have points to loose.
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12075 retest.
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No lift, at all.
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In weekly Forecast in Strong Long Zone.
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Stopped.
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11964 may hold.
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Was a Flash Crash, good to see this and a Hold is a Buy.
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Long at 11996, 50 stop
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Adding Long at 12000
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Just games
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Dropping half at 12025
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12075 is target
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Got back stop hit.
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Stop at 12020 and Break even. Will let run into O/N Prop Magic.
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So Orange Line is Strong Long at Hold and Strong Short Under. Stopped at 12020.
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Outside Day Reversal, will update tomorrow. Tons of Failed Auctions above that will needs to be retested.
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KL's for O/N and Friday. Shaded are Failed Auction Zones and are reliable as targets and retest zones.
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Yellow Line is recent Prop Base, expect it to hold and supply a U Turn. The Danger Zone is below and that will be defended.
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You can see that the O/N is usually very different than Open on down days in Open. May see the same tomorrow. May see drop in O/N pre Open with in DZ and lift near EOD. Highly doubt we see same way PA, that would be just crazy.
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NQ1 and current Contract is way off with pricing, KL's will not match. FYI.
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Updated KL's Current Contract
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NQ1 is off 100 points. Current contract hit 11930 (White line) and Diablo (Orange TL) in forecast/post. We had a 80 point 30 minute bounce at 1am CT off 11920. I will be surprised if the NAZ goes lower today and stays lower, I am just expecting the typical U Turn away from the Danger Zone. New followers you may want to review the TTZ (trading time zones) post, this will cover the O/N and Dead Zone periods and how they prop the NAZ.
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Yellow arrows are the prop moves, recent one will fall back to 12000 and then try for shaded area above.
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Notice how the Prop moves erase the entire O/N drop and are a fraction of the time. So if we get a sell off, you can expect the lift to follow or NAZ gets propped in minutes at PR release and that is the prop, then falls back lower during Open only to be propped back up during the next O/N sessions.
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Shaded hit, back to 12000 now.
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NAZ falling back now. I am actually trying to develop the 1st Prop or Fake move indicator. Just surprised that nobody has done this will all these fake moves that trick everybody.
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Watch Shaded prior to Open, Lower is unlikely or maybe on Knee Jerk.
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Long at 12000, 100 point Target take profit, No stop. Long at 11900, 100 point stop and 200 point take profit, 100 point Stop to cover both trade. Going with Prop O/N Knee Jerk 1st, may be wrong just the pattern forever.
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Diablo to Break or Bounce when NAZ does go lower.
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Good on 1st trade 100 points profit
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Always go with the U Turn when in Danger. Now may fall back near Open for next trade.
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12115, 12130, 12160 are tests above.
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PB to 12050 is likely
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12115 is yesterday VA, NAZ trying to get through. Rejection will be a drop.
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Cancelling my 2nd Long trade for now.
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Range is Set, play it and I will be back mid morning.
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12085 is KL, NAZ will struggle near.
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Notice the Prop lifts (3) and then the slow decline. This will continue until the Long trades hold and the BTD/FOMO's so up.
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11900-20 cloud be a Long, watch the level.
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Pop to 12940 likely.
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PB 11985 and bounce
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11900 Long may fall back some.
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Long needs to pass 12028
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12085 is next test and short under
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12028 Rejected
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11960 - 20 is next zone.
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12085 Rejection should push to lower Zone mentioned.
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Again, notice the DZ flip flop. This just is busywork and offsets the drop.
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All this movement and NAZ will be Flat to positive today, watch. Back Later.
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closing Short at 11830
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This may go to 11600 at no hold here
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930 and 980 on lift or re short at stall
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860 is retest
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850 retested 830 hold is long scalp.
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860 Hit, 930
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You have to add 20-30 points at KL's and watch Ticks.
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11810 is KL, above Long Short below
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860 is key to Long
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bid to ask spreads are wide, will fly
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inside 11860, bottom 1st 30M
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got to 910
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910 or 795, flat. Scalped to 900 a few times.
עסקה סגורה: היעד הושג:
final 10M may bounce some, great day and maybe another 200 lower.
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Range 11900-11600
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Monday
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KL's
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Amazing, NAZ already 100 points off the low. Even after the close. These are the easiest trades and the pump will be on in O/N.
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