NQ Range (01-27-25)
Final week of the 1st month, so far not much has changed with intraday Price Action. The original Danger Zone TL (Orange) now has a lower long term TL that may be an indication that the Danger Zone is dropping (NAZ may start to experience lower lows and start a decline). Short below 22,200 and Long above. 19,200 is Strong Long Zone, we did retest U Turn Zone #1 (21,000) and may retest #2 (20,000). For now, Long in the O/N, fade the Open Range and Long in Dead Zone or near the Close. Should this pattern change, it would be a minor miracle. Go Fed & Washington Street (Wall Street is 2nd Banana), the Fed Is back this week.
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KL 20,800 will show the bounce at channel bottom and prior to retest. 21,250 is YTD Open, you can see lower channel is 2nd chart below. Use the TLX's for Target/Reversal's.
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Should of stayed with Short on Friday, typical shake out and the the off session sneak move. TLX below may retest and U Turn. Anyway, the momentum has changed.
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NAZ is 500 points lower from Friday high of which 400 is in the O/N off session (including gap down). I feel bad for the FOMO/BTDers. Long Trap.
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Eight days of rigged gains are gone in hours, and before to Reg Session is even open. If you go back to some recent prior Posts you will see the mention of a massive of "1,000 / 1,500 / 2,000.... point drop on the way and may happen in 1-2 days. This is in hours and in the rigged Overnight (usually long) session. Anyway, NAZ Flat on the year and the entire stock market is exposed to a massive hit should this continue, no kidding here, the machines will go crazy if the FOMO/BTD switch is not turned on. The new limit down in Futures is -7% (no longer -5%). 21,000 is next hope of a U Turn or sideways for a bit until next move.
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Update from Friday high is 1,000 point move (drop) with NAZ at 21,100, FYI. So do I hear 1,500 / 2,000 or 2,500???הערה
Just goes to show that Washington Street just got spanked by Wall Street. Looks like a perfect Pump/Dump after 1st week of new administration, they let it get just rigged up and sold the event after all (media, retail...) was think "Golden Age", blah blah blah. Seriously, this heavy off session volume is a problem. Bloomberg reported on it last week and I have been commenting about for 2-3 years. I would think the Fed is enjoying this one and will let it just tank, we may see a power /turn battle between Washington Street and other forces. Not political, just think of the plays to follow. הערה
Freefall, 20,700 next. Thing is the B/A spreads are not bad (tight). Wait until they get wide. That may be for any retrace retests back up to confirms the drop. We better see some 2 way here at Open (reg session).
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O/N hit -5%, this is old limit down, we now have -7%. Think about it, 3 or so negative O/N's would erase all of 2024 gains and if you look back the 2024 gains are the only gains since 2022 Open/High. Fact, 2024 had only since 2022 high or 3 year period. My extreme comments/calls in priors Post's are actually playing out. I think we go -7% in Reg Session today.
NAZ reversing at TLX 835 for now.
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Expected Open Range today, look for sideways to break out of range.
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NDX Danger Zone chart, the Friday high to O/N low was a 1,300 point move. Largest gap on any Index that I have seen in years.
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Open, should drop back in the range. Just give it time today. Do Not Chase.
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21,300 is about 50% retracement and normal.
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Rejection at Long Term Danger Zone TL
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Move above 21,250 was most likely a stop cleanout, NAZ may now drop back to O/N low. Interesting to see what happens tonight in the O/N.
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Pick one.
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The Friday-Monday Long trade has been broken, took a few years. Let's see what other tricks break? Did the Long only O/N pump break? NAZ drops and the entire stock market will be hurt badly. With that, i would expect some stabilizing or rigging to the Long side should we revisit the O/N low. הערה
O/R ML and above is Long and below is Short
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NAZ still in O/R but O/N is trying its pump.
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1/28 Update, O/N top pump was up 175 points and has dropped back 75 from high. Yellow arrow is range to watch, NAZ is under DZ TL (Orange TL). May have a hard time getting through yellow shaded zone (415). Fed Day coming up and may be a doozy. Or, is this just another U Turn in the works? That would be UT # 40ish. Bigger zone to watch are the two white arrows for Fed Day or any breakout from Yellow Arrow range.
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IDS50 View, use higher range settings or timeframe on candle charts, less noise.
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I have noticed for a few years that the overnight (O/N) price action has created much noise and whipsaw set ups. The yellow arrows to the left are O/N's that just evaporated in 1 huge O/N air pocket bust. The sad news is that the Reg Session really does not have much strength to the upside, usually. Not for O/N rig plays to the left, think where the NAZ would be? They are primarily drop offsets and will most likely come back once/if we stabilize. For today, look Long above YTD open (blue) and Short below and we may rotate around that all day.
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1st move looking up for quick scalp. Needs to pass 360 and 2nd move may be bigger at rejection.
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Wrong, TLX to 125 may turn or lower we go.
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360 is a problem and NAZ still in Yellow Arrow range.
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Needs to pass DZ TL
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U Turn or bust at TL. I am out.
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This one will be interesting, Fireworks on the way.
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Expecting sideways, head fakes and a nasty drop. This is juiced with no strength, may lift as that is what it takes to get out. Sellers need buyers.הערה
NAZ better go sideways to the O/N Safe Zone or it is toast.
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Here we go with the Dead Zone Magic Lift to the O/N, just amazing. This move will have to keep going and stay above the Yellow Shaded Zone. Long Trap or I am wrong, again today. Notice opposite moves prior to planned moves.
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Red Zone below are Drop tests or FA Zone.
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Under TLX 564, next moves. Not sure it gets too far above.
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Slight divergence, usually is followed by a drop. O/N is next so unlikely.
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Scalp Short into the O/N. Should stay under 620. 620-585 is range or pass on trade.
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place stop at 615
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TLX hit on Scalp, may play in range.
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Leave it may be a dead cat.הערה
Kitty Cat fake Job.
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Hilarious, yesterday was bad news/bad news and today is bad news/good news. Spin it to fit the PA. Same old tricks and expected moves, nothing has changed. Just watch counter moves prior to main moves. Caught me today, twice.הערה
YTD to EOW with Fib Levels, Friday is last day of Month and may see some selling.
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1/29 Update, NAZ with Scalp Short into O/N and then the typical lift play while we sleep. May be trying for Gap Fill to 21,845. Look long above 615 and short below.
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You can see the typical U Turn move happening, O/N and Dead Zone moves once again, the Reg Session O/R should sell 1st for quick check and then back to the air balloon ride higher.
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Bigger view of channel and potential plays since we are still playing inside a range. 21,075 break may try Diablo below (Red TL) and Red Zone. 21,974 is ML of current channel and may be Gap Fill Reversal Zone. Thinking if we go up that would happen with New Month reversal next week or failed Friday-Monday Long play #2 this week.
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BTD/FOMO Go Fed, It is Fed day. Fed may shake it up as the Washington Street vs Wall Street battle is just getting started.הערה
Just like yesterday, counter moves prior to main move. Yesterday 620 under Short does scalp to only go above in O/N and back below. Shake out, shake out, shake out. Under 615 today may drop big.
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Back at TL, air balloon or bust.
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Now TLX 564 is what to watch.
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TLX is blocking
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No pop and we will see a Hook Short play out here. Pop in Dead Zone is the typical play.
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NVDIA is down 5% and all MAG7 are flat to negative and the index will not drop much, just crazy and fixed. Nasty drop from yesterday is delayed or offset. הערה
Maybe it is me, why does NAZ always struggle when dropping but perfectly climb with smooth organized PA when moving up? Just strange and feel it will get back to old ways soon. Anyway, ML O/R is rejecting, as usual on down day.
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Yellow Arrow, Break Today?
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Every single drop comes right back, struggles to stay down. Jerky whippy and then shakeout or pops up.
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Sitting on Danger Zone TL, here we go.
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Mild Fed Day, stay with Short below 615 and Long above. O/N will most likely try and pop it up, it does not matter what happens in the Regular Session as companies will report after the close during Earnings Season and most moves should be higher 1st. NAZ will drop again but like last time, probably when the can sneak it by in the O/N or off session.
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1/30 Update, Same old Price Action and tricks. Why must the tricks be used if all is well? Chart below will show the previous 12/18 decline and when (W) will be in the Reg Session, not O/N. White arrow are L/L after all tricks up.
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Same thing here on 1/24, when I was Short but got shook off, yep missed it.
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This is current chart and notice that we are inside the O/N Range of yesterday. 1st clue and next would be drop in Reg Session. No Drop, BTD until the fan gets hit with some dodo.
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Yesterday O/N High and Reg Session High From prior day.
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Whites are Reg Session L/H and Yellow is current O/N fluff, above L/H of Reg Session. Noise and will most likely drop in Reg Session if Reg Session shows a L/H then yesterday. Lower High is L/H. You can also track the L/L and L/H of the ML of O/R Mild level of Open Range. This is how to KL Trade (Key Level). All other info is just Noise.
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30M Chart, notice the attempt to gap fill and my comment yesterday regarding the it des not matter what drop happens in Reg Session as the o/N will just prop it up. Trading the games in the new skillset as now 50% of volume is in the off session. The drop (selling) will happen in Reg as liquidity is huge. The drop on Sunday the 26th was during the O/N, this was massive and does show that the exit can happen during off session times.
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Have a good day today, I will be out.הערה
Lower High in the O/R, look for a drop on stall out up or move higher no stall out. Way to play.
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Perfect stacking, fakeish.
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Fakeish = Chase Me
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DZ TL hit
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Needs to break 387 or coming back up.
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Up in O/N (The BOSS) and down in Reg Session.הערה
Above O/N low to 730 is range. Needs to pass ML O/R or back down. Then Up in the O/N for Friday-Monday Rally, or not.
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FA's cleaned out and should drop. Trying to leave but cheap Price Action is too Fun.
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DZ TL is only support, break lower and get ready or back up to the moon.
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Scalp Longs have been working, looking or expecting the reverse side to start to be dominant. NAZ will have to drop back under the last yellow arrow 1st or stay with Long Scalps. I tend to Short on stall outs, this is much harder as you can see the constant lift in Dead Zone and O/N periods.
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Higher ML O/R than yesterday and higher Reg Session High than yesterday, trend is higher. ML O/N is lower and the O/N is The Boss. I would say, under 680-730 is a negative and potential direction change.
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Chase me #2, rejection at 680 ML O/R
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DZ TL is key in O/N
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Pattern for about 2 years has been simple, Long in O/N, Short Open Range and Long in Dead Zone. Looking for a change in pattern and the 12/16 drop was a major shift.הערה
UPS, FedEx and Caterpillar used to be leading indicators, interesting. UPS-14% today.הערה
Friday is final day of the month and may we see the yellow arrow play out?
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1/31/ Update, O/N to pump again, Divergence could set up a Pump/Dump or drop retest to FA Zone below (Red Zone).
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Gap fill at 845, yellow arrow is range above and you can see white arrows as upper/lower channel targets. Since 12/16 there has been 8 direction changes in the Box. Friday-Monday Long is playing out and any stall will fall.
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Turd Alert, Turds do work so or have been. Need to see Reg Session reaction on this Friday and last day of month. Options will dictate closing levels today.
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Many have asked, A Turd is Price Action that sticks out like a Turd in a Punchbowl. הערה
Turd Flush or Pop at Open, backside of Divergence TL.
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Candle Skills say 791 is a problem
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Gap fill drop test should show up.
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Watch 791 now
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Air pocket under 845
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No AP drop, Yellow arrow is range. It is Friday, air balloon PA.
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820 retest is likely.
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Going Short at 21,975 rejection and walking away with 100 point stop. 975 may be top run, also ML Channel and counter play on F-M Long move. Most of this move is O/N based so not much respect.
העסקה בוטלה באופן ידני
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100 or so off high and needs to pick up RAMMING Speed or going to the Moon. O/N Air Pocket should collapse.
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Stop at 22,000 just in case. Shake out, again?הערה
The entire lift except 100 points from 01/25/25 was done in O/N. The Reg Session just churned after each O/N high. Gap Filled and the Mass Exit may follow by EOD or Monday, Have a great weekend. הערה
820 Retest, keep going.
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Reg Session gains, gone for the week.
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Ramming Speed next?
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FA Zone below may bounce
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Tariff Turd blowout, NAZ at bottom of Turd zone.
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Under the Red Zone is the Danger Zone, they may try and keep it away. Lower stop.
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NAZ took out FA Zone and will need to get above or way lower it will go, Not Ramming Speed Yet. I have seen worse, need to see final hour PA.
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TLX 564, If you think Long is next, just watch the Ticks 1st and the head fake 2nd.
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Danger Zone TL Retest, on a Freaky Friday. This would be #3. No hold may go to 250 in a flash.
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You can see how the O/N lifting keeps the NAZ safe when it creates the O/N lifts higher (everyday). When this ends the NAZ will not have the pre-rescue support and will really really head lower, just like earlier this week. BTD/FOMO and Go Fed as the O/N is still THE BOSS, until its Gets Fired by Wall Street. The Washington Street /Wall Street battle is just starting. הערה
10 minutes to the Close. The Yellow arrow will need to create a Long Wick or huge 30M candle back up or weakness is showing with strong buying
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Wick on the top and not bottom? Need to see if/how the O/N Rig Pump plays out by Monday.
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Friday drop and set up, FYI. 1) The Divergence of PA and lower indicator, 2) The reaction/action after Gap Fill KL 845, 3) The Air Pocket and then the falling back to previous ML O/R's. The fact that Friday was stalling after all this, you had to look SHORT. Monday will gap open lower or lift then retest under 845 at KL's and then drop, again.
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Sunday Gap, Bingo
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כתב ויתור
המידע והפרסומים אינם אמורים להיות, ואינם מהווים, עצות פיננסיות, השקעות, מסחר או סוגים אחרים של עצות או המלצות שסופקו או מאושרים על ידי TradingView. קרא עוד בתנאים וההגבלות.