NQ Range (01-06-25)
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2025 will get going this week or next. The prior Post called U Turn near the Danger Zone with Friday-Monday rally, which may be extended to 1/13 since markets closed on 1/9. Orange TL is danger zone, shaded are U Turn zones and others are just key levels (KL's). 990 hit & Long U Turn to stall out (next dash white or 22,080). Notice 12/18 & 19, we may see that now on way up and if not, reverse it and NAZ will fall in the DZ. 1st white vertical is Friday close and 2nd is January month end. Looking for NAZ to retest 18,655 should it get in and stay in the DZ. We will need to see some drops in the off session Overnight (never happens) and Not see the Friday-Monday Long play. Unless these breakdown look Long (as they are holding up the NAZ). Should these crack we could see some drop moves like 12/18 & 19th and provide the right shoulder to the H/S. BTD, FOMO, GoFed in 2025.
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Since nobody really knows what any index will actually do and (what, when, where), the NAZ may complete the W with the white arrow or the H/S with yellow arrow.
Trading's 4 key W's, the keys to it all:
#1, What, what is next move Long or Short? Direction of execution.
#2, When, when to execute the What? This happens prior to the move.
#3, Where, this is the Target of #'s 1 & 2?
#4, Why, this is the least important and does not matter. This is the job of all the media, long only managers such mutual funds and ETF's.
Welcome to the Noise, designed to confuse you and muddy up #'s 1-3. When the noise sources get in sync, its to late. Do not wait for them as they do not understand #'s 1-3 and are only structured as Long Only Products. They could not even trade if they knew all the answers.
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Nothing new today with 2nd half of Friday-Monday Long Play doing its thing. 770 is 1st target for test. You have view recent IDS30M post for additional set up/structure for today.
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IDS27 is showing Air Pocket Divergence for O/N Pump/Dump. May happen quick or not at all. You never know but is is there and has been reliable. Coordinate with O/R 1st 15-30 minute volume blast.
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Yellow on 30M, need to see 2nd and NAZ will need to stay under white line which will turn Yellow. Good Luck today.
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NAZ at fork in the road.
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Pump/Dump starting at 15m til Open, Got to 640 and 620 is ML of O/N.
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30M with Yell Tilson signal prior to drop. Use your tools.
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Holiday, Party Free float is over. This week may whipsaw some to set up bigger drop test for next week.הערה
Five hours up and gone in 10 minutes. Quick Drop Test.
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Short at 830 no pass, long above.
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820 retest for short to 700
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865-70 should be limit high or stop level on short.הערה
Hook Short or pop here at 820.
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Add to short and move up stop. Edge trade.
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820-860 is stop clean out for drop or to the moon. Should see drop prior to leg higher.
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Looking for 2 yellows or 940 is next.
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Hours up and minutes down, until hours down and out. 880 is KL to watch here.
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880 add short with stop at 980. Will keep and get stopped, may be early, have points from Long to wash out the hit, if so. Walking away.
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10YN is not in a great spot and may fall through. This may be why the lift may be just another drop offset. 10YN drop will lift yields and crush stocks.
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Buyers need sellers and Sellers need buyers, Whipsaw in action. Batter Up as NAZ heads back inside the range. Should see some very quick drops to get this going here. 2 way trading is back in 2025.הערה
865 is Fib .618 level form U Turn at Danger Zone. Canadian PM is resigning, Barr is stepping down as Fed vice chair. The Noise makers may use to shake things up. Go Fed. Mot of todays pop was in the O/N, not real but may work as BTD is in play inside F-M Long Play. הערה
1 Yellow, slow turn in the Dead Zone. O/N may prop it should it drop by EOD.
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NAZ back inside O/R and may retest 21,780. Under 1 yellow, looking for 2nd.
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Upper yellow zone is expected U Turn Drop Zone should NAZ climb back up. Lower white shaded zones are drop targets. Just watch for head fake Logs this week. NAZ at 21,785, just above 780.
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Closing half Short at 21,785הערה
IDS35 View
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2 yellows on 30M
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715 Hit and O/N lift in jeopardy. O/N is The Boss.
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Oh my, 2 way trading is back. Whaaaat, BTD/FOMO's O/N to the rescue.הערה
NAZ needs to stay under 787 or close into the O/N will Prop it back up prior to next drop.
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IDS50 Air Pocket Divergence call from earlier, why I was going and adding Short during the lift. These are reliable signals. The O/N lift and F-M Long move are 2 moves that I would expect to breakdown in 2025. These are starting to show weakness, been running for years. Watch for counter moves over this month.
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IDS30 Minute day view and you can see that the system did deliver the same result.
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Like Magic, NAZ is above 2 yellows and at 785 after market close and in O/N Session. Why does this heavily concentrated index primarily only lift in off session period??? What is up, am I the only one who sees this? Sneaky weasel riggers, actually very impressive and best trade going. Just hard to buy into. Long O/N, Short Reg Session continues. 1/9 markets close then back to F-M Long weasel play #2.
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Box for Monday O/N breakout and range. The move will need to stay out of the box (from long or Short side). The Box is NTZ and trade an the edges in opposite direction 1st, wait for confirm breakout. May see another drop prior to Thursday (closed markets) and F-M Long play.
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Danger Zone TL, running since 10/22. A break will be significant, over 2 years of tricks and games.
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1/7 Update, O/N Magic Riggers did not bust the NAZ outside of lower Box. Since the Reg Session is next and rarely moves in the up direction, you may think Short today. 680-780 is range to watch now, you did see 1 Long Edge Trade last night. Opposite direction at KL, best use of time these days.
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KL's for the day. Upper yellow zone is Short zone and lower white is Long only on test/retest from above near a KL. Just not expecting much until next week since Thursday Closed market and F-M Long directly after. BTD/FOMO, Go Fed and AI in 2025.
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IDS users, use IDS35 (or 50) for next few days as the Push/Pull whip will need to be smoothed out. 27 or below will produce too many false signals. הערה
IDS35/30M Dual View
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Unless the O/N lifts the NAZ, just a totally different (flat) tone. Box Range for sure in Open Drive with selling showing up at some point today. I would be surprised is NAZ gets above ML of box 780-800 range. Short call yesterday was early by 20 points or an hour or so. The Thursday closure does favor a weak decent Long move. Take profit on short should it approach your entry price. You will get another shot.הערה
Bingo
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650 is Strong Short and Long Scalp on hold. No O/N, No Fed No Rally. Now Dead Zone will try to push up and No DZ, lower we go. Rigged Joke Price Action.
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So far decent 2 way PA this year. Getting back to normal which means selling should return.
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NAZ at the Edge of the Abyss.
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494, 200 & 990 are lower targets and U Turns. Needs to stay under 650.
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Just remember that the only hope would be the Dead Zone Clowns. I think the Circus is leaving town. DZ is after 1st hour to the start of the Final hour.
IDS35 View
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Open Range with 250 point range, this may be played up/down if 1 way freight train does not arrive.הערה
10YN, watch this guy, back later.
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Delayed H/S playing maybe.
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440-20 retest for pop.
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Long scalp above 420, closing Shorts. Regardless.הערה
U Turn back up half of drop or Bust out here under 420.
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Great day and 2 way is back. I had to run out to ER, all good. Timing is a B--ch. Anyway, this may be more drama and theatrics for the potential rally for another retest higher when Thursday (closed) and Friday-Monday Long Play. Stayed above Danger Zone level and should create a slight U Turn for the O/N Long Only Rig Team. Up/Down until next break under Danger Zone or retest.
21,800 Short or continuation Short from Monday's fake rally.
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IDS50, Notice the flow of upward price action vs downward PA. NAZ moves up smoothly (weak & slow, but smooth) over 3 days. Falls reluctantly, jagged, jerky, etc. over 1 day. When shorting you short from white jagged retracement peaks on stall out. Falling PA will usually move in very similar distance on drop and retracement back up.
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1/8 Update, NAZ back to 420-440 zone (where I closed shorts). Sideways to upper day today, yellow arrow is range and lines are KL's. Tomorrow the markets are closed so expect all low volume tricks to the upside. This would include a gap higher into Friday. A hit at 240 and hold is Long 1st and break under Super Strong Short. Sellers will need the Buyers (bait). Push/Pull and whipsaw expected today, the Thursday close is only safeguard with selling route. NAZ staying under 350 may turn things very ugly and change the Thursday games. BTD/FOMO Fed Minutes, Dead Zone and AI will have to deliver with some strength today. Orange TL is Danger Zone that has been solid since 10/22.
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Dual View
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IDS users, 27/35/50. Pay attention to the yellow "Lightning Rod". The yellow arrows will show the top/bottom and watch next move inside the LR range. Lower lows and higher highs will show trend and trend changes.
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Time to get surgical with your indicators. I prefer non time based charts, range or tick. These only print when price changes, unlike time based. Time based do produce noise. הערה
Upward trend LR, example.
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Long set up and white arrow is expected PB Pull Back. As long as the price stays above entry, trend is up. Scalp with LR (long or short) as the distances are similar. Who cares about direction or why.
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Notice during drop the LR is no longer lit up. This is a PB or short scalp. Again, similar distance to long move, you get 2 chances on most moves unless we are in fake long 1 way move Up. These only go up with zero 2 way. Notice how NAZ went back to entry. This is the bait (sellers baiting the buyers).
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Watch 380 now or 350-380
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New LR at 300, set up or false signal?
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Lift in hours and selling in minutes, again.
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Good luck today, you can see that each day the index will give hundreds of points dual direction. This is useful because the buying and selling is behind each move. No need to wait for breakouts as the sideways PA will always produce more in total points. Trend has not changed here, you know the BTD's will take the next move at 300.
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The media just needs to say AI a few times and back to ATH or NOT. Who cares, just enjoy your rides.
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Easy stuff as NAZ is back to ML of O/N range and 350-80.
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NAZ still inside range and should hold above DZ, no way they let it break under and stay under. Need more whip back and forth prior to that and then there is Thursday and Friday-Monday redirect attempt.
Next week is more likely.
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Just feels like another U Turn. If head fake, that would be very ugly so maybe be careful with the Long side until after the 1st hour today. הערה
Lower end of range, 240 hold is key and LONG.
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HIT need LR and few rests to confirm Long. Not there yet.
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Pop off 240 at Key Time 1 hour prior to Open. Back to KL 354 and O/N failing to hold a lift. O/R will need to move in up direction or NAZ is toast. Just feels like U Turn is next as BTD/FOMO's have no other play (they out number actual traders, pro's, hedge funds, etc.).
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Notice LR top/bottoms, direction may be shifting
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O/N low is a DZ TL Hit, Wow it just continues to be that easy.
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240 pop was 2 hours prior, not 1. Now 1 HR prior is redirecting. Open will be wild as O/N is directionless. הערה
Current O/N range is very important and is in between the upper Resistance Zone and Lower Support Zone. They only way up is with Tricks connected to tomorrow Closed Session or the Friday-Monday Lift Play. Highly doubt it goes up in today's Reg Session. This will the result in a drop to support zone, that must hold or away we go. The other play is that the Reg Session does not sell off and buys this dip, not typical of Reg Session.
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Hanging at NTZ
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Under NTZ, most likely sideways today. To O/N for rally up into Friday.
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Double Bottom and Dead Zone lift should be next.
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This is the testing and retesting at KL 240 that I was talking about. DZ will need to lift or lower and way lower we go. Just feels like games prior to retracement back up to top O/N range.
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On que, DZ Traders come in. Edge trades in opposite direction are good use of time. Rock on as you add up points in the range.
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Anyway, I will be 100% shocked if the Thursday closed session will lead into a Friday-Monday Rally. That would be illegal and I will quit trading. Looking that way and I would hope not as the tricks are getting OLD (but keep working). NAZ needs to drop and retest lower in order for any major lift higher, at this point. Believe they are afraid it will not stop dropping, if so. הערה
Notice the jerky price action, this is nasty no conviction PA. Last time we saw this near a danger zone, it went up. Not sure that is a guarantee but maybe the opposite warning sign. Feeling like a breakdown. Looks like an EKQ chart, impossible to trade unless playing KL to KL and out. Anything else is gambling.
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Top of O/N or 450, from KL 240. Too easy. Rooster will near.
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Rooster
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Just unreal, too many points to grab today. 7 major direction changes. Just like prior U Turn at the Danger Zone. One of these will breakout. The closure Thursday most likely keeping this mild.
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Just watch the LL/HH on LR Signal. Only way to see it.הערה
Above 300 is Long.
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Stop at 300, trail it.הערה
stop 350
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stop 400הערה
out for 100הערה
340 Long with 50 point stop.
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stop at 330הערה
Out -10הערה
Long at 325, O/N Rig Team. 90 point stop.
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stop at 300, looks like U Turn into the no volume long zone O/N.הערה
Target is 450, cmon Riggers. BTD/FOMO Forever.
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Out for 50
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Did not want to risk Closed gap lower.הערה
Nothing but KL to KL and sideways to the Close. We shall see if Tricks continue.הערה
1/9 Update, Markets closed today and no push in O/N Futures. I am surprised, NAZ is rotating on the Danger Zone TL and may actually continue with H/S right shoulder. 20,000 is 1st lower if the FOMO's do not show up for the TGIF Long Play tomorrow.
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1/10 Update, NDX chart below will say it all. NAZ at Danger Zone retest, again.
Since low of 10/2022, the index is up 111% of which 32% are gains above the 2021 high/2022 open. The drop from 12/16/24 ATH (all-time high) is 6% and will reset the gain back to 24%. Back in August 2024, the index was near flat and has had a decent run up since. The danger zone TL has been holding well, for 2 years. Something to keep an eye on, a break under may revisit the 18,000 level.
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21,350 and above look Long and below Short. Watch out for O/N to Reg Session Pump/Dump today. If we see some selling (from now on) it will be heavy. Sideways, feels like U Turn into Friday-Monday Long Rig. This may be 1st move only to set up the Big Dipper.
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Failed Auction zone from 300-320, look for NAZ to retest and show reaction.
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Below 21,285, look for stronger Short. NAZ taking out 320 FA's now.
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285, Now watch the 315-340 pop retest for next move should NAZ get and stay above 285.
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BTD/FOMO Friday, maybe.הערה
H/S playing out and 10YN is Popping Yields
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990 and 758, whipsaw should show up as the break under the Danger Zone TL takes place.
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10YN
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120 and above will try for 240. Back under 120 will drop.
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990 is triple bottom and will have to hold or way lower she goes.
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21,040 is showing Long Signal. May turn or head fake.
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Any Long is a scalp until stall out.הערה
This is a Major Edge trade and use a stop if you are playing itהערה
No go but you can expect a Friday pop back in Dead Zone to trade. If not, the NAZ is Toast. הערה
H/S, has dandruff.
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Anyway a Long to 120 is next. BTD for that and see what it does.
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No hit of 120, get out of Long.
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NAZ will have to get above Turn Zone and above 120. This is just a retest Pop Up.
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Sideways stall out and garbage PA until the EOD. Many times this can Float Up on a Friday. No upward and back lower as the F-M pop show maybe Over.
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Retest Hit and may drop at this point, careful FOMO's.
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Back under Triple Bottom, Can really head south if stays under. This is the next Huge Signal.
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FYI, a Bear Market will Drop during Open Drive, Stop and retrace up back to Mid Level of Open Range (1st 30-60 Minutes). That retest is the pass up or drop back lower Retest. Notice the PA today and get use to it.
Chart here:
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Range for next move.
העסקה בוטלה באופן ידני
Have to run and closing Post as we head into the final few hours of the week. Anything under 21,125 should drop back lower or near low of day. I was calling for a drop this week or next, I do thing we continue lower next week and that the NAZ has seen its high for awhile. The NAZ will need O/N Rigging, Dead Zone Lifts and any cheap trick they can pull off. In the Danger Zone now and may retest as high as 21,240 should it get above 120-140. Next big thing would be O/N session that sells big, if not then back up as the selloff will be stabilized in the O/N and Dead Zones. Sellers need buyers, this may get tricky whippy. Go Fed and have a great weekend.
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NAZ in the Danger Zone rejected trying to get back through U Turn Zone #1, sitting on the Edge, KL 990, Fib Level .236. Near hit of TLX 758, will need major O/N Rigging, help and tricks come Monday and prior to turn around Tuesday. 10YN is looking to try 5% yield, not good for any stock index. Long only investment product world has no other play (since long only). I guess they can sell and start a new term called "Sell The Dip". Whipsaw is guaranteed next week as we have 2 way trading back in 2025.
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