Week of July 14 NQ/10Y/CL/GC/Real Estate
מעודכן
Last week, we were reminded what selling looks like on indexes.
The Nasdaq and Bitcoin tend to lead the technical moves, and I believe we are headed for a 10% correction here soon on NDX. NDX led the market by making its top earlier than the rest - but everything is poised for a nice drop from here.
My contention is that this will be the final wash-out on indexes before the final big long swing into the secular top of the market - which will come before the November Elections.
Nasdaq finally gave us some selling that we can lean into last week. We got a h4 Market Structure Shift (MSS) and Friday gave us the perfect back-test of the h4 sell structure.
The first logical target for NQ is going to be the July Lows.
From there - I want to see a small bounce and then resume the proper down move to around 18.5k area.
The Draw on liquidity is that quarterly IRL that we need to visit. If we can crack the 19k mark on NQ, it will offer a 10% drop from ATH - which is the perfect amount to scare all the villagers, we will see bears on parade - right as its time to long the index for the final move to ~25k.
10yr Rates continued to fall this week - which is what is jucing the markets. That being said, I'm still looking for the 10yr to march down to ~3.8% before any kind of meaningful bounce. This is because the economy is starting to roll over, inflation is coming down - and the bond market knows it.
Oil was floppy last week, but I still am looking for that 85/86 level to sell. Oil has been a tough trade up here as the tape has been rather heavy. Oil wants to drop due to weakening global economic forces - but they keep pumping it up with Hurricane premium etc - I have no trade in oil until after we sweep the 85/86 area and can begin the proper big sell program.
Gold popped this week but I think it was just a pop into a h4 IRL that is a selling opportunity. I want to see Gold sweep those Equal Lows down around 2304, clean up some inefficiencies ~ 2230, then resume its uptrend.
Real Estate is about to start its larger secular downturn here - and we are already seeing it in places like Austin, Phoenix, and Florida.
What is wild about Real Estate is how insanely clean the charts are. If we start with the quarterly chart - it is a textbook example of a bubble chart
Having this HTF Bias, enables me to look for weekly swing trade setups, as I believe real estate is about to take a 50% or greater dump. I think the prices of MOST assets (homes/planes/boats/Rolex Watches) are headed back to 2013 levels.
Homes were bought en masse by wall street, and a lot of the firms are upside down on the properties as they sit empty. A combination of higher rates, and a flood of supply - all timed with an economic recession - is going to leave real estate as a smoking crater.
The weekly - we are entering an area up here which I believe will morph out to a great selling opportunity - as we make a weekly Turtle Soup sell entry.
So here is the setup I am watching for this week;
Until next week - We'll be watching.
The Nasdaq and Bitcoin tend to lead the technical moves, and I believe we are headed for a 10% correction here soon on NDX. NDX led the market by making its top earlier than the rest - but everything is poised for a nice drop from here.
My contention is that this will be the final wash-out on indexes before the final big long swing into the secular top of the market - which will come before the November Elections.
Nasdaq finally gave us some selling that we can lean into last week. We got a h4 Market Structure Shift (MSS) and Friday gave us the perfect back-test of the h4 sell structure.
The first logical target for NQ is going to be the July Lows.
From there - I want to see a small bounce and then resume the proper down move to around 18.5k area.
The Draw on liquidity is that quarterly IRL that we need to visit. If we can crack the 19k mark on NQ, it will offer a 10% drop from ATH - which is the perfect amount to scare all the villagers, we will see bears on parade - right as its time to long the index for the final move to ~25k.
10yr Rates continued to fall this week - which is what is jucing the markets. That being said, I'm still looking for the 10yr to march down to ~3.8% before any kind of meaningful bounce. This is because the economy is starting to roll over, inflation is coming down - and the bond market knows it.
Oil was floppy last week, but I still am looking for that 85/86 level to sell. Oil has been a tough trade up here as the tape has been rather heavy. Oil wants to drop due to weakening global economic forces - but they keep pumping it up with Hurricane premium etc - I have no trade in oil until after we sweep the 85/86 area and can begin the proper big sell program.
Gold popped this week but I think it was just a pop into a h4 IRL that is a selling opportunity. I want to see Gold sweep those Equal Lows down around 2304, clean up some inefficiencies ~ 2230, then resume its uptrend.
Real Estate is about to start its larger secular downturn here - and we are already seeing it in places like Austin, Phoenix, and Florida.
What is wild about Real Estate is how insanely clean the charts are. If we start with the quarterly chart - it is a textbook example of a bubble chart
Having this HTF Bias, enables me to look for weekly swing trade setups, as I believe real estate is about to take a 50% or greater dump. I think the prices of MOST assets (homes/planes/boats/Rolex Watches) are headed back to 2013 levels.
Homes were bought en masse by wall street, and a lot of the firms are upside down on the properties as they sit empty. A combination of higher rates, and a flood of supply - all timed with an economic recession - is going to leave real estate as a smoking crater.
The weekly - we are entering an area up here which I believe will morph out to a great selling opportunity - as we make a weekly Turtle Soup sell entry.
So here is the setup I am watching for this week;
- I want to see NQ drop back to a weekly IRL level and run the h4/weekly TS for potential long entries ~ 19.8k. We should get a small bounce down there, but the ultimate goal of this drawdown should be ~ 18.5k
- I want to see oil take out the 85/86 level and then reverse hard - this will confirm the bond market deflationary stance as the global economy weakens.
- I am still waiting for gold to sweep the 2304 equal lows for a long entry.
- I want to see YM, Real Estate, and Small caps start moving lower. I think this is the start of a nice market-wide correction.
Until next week - We'll be watching.
עסקה סגורה: היעד הושג
Closing NQ shorts here. Waiting to see what the next move is. 
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