Bearish Targets ... Even Deeper Downside? | $NZD $CAD #RBNZ #BOC
Friends,
On a pure fundamental basis, a rate-based directional bias should favor a decline in the NZDCAD pair.
First, NZD was recently affected by a decline in its dairy futures pricing, bringing the currency to a double-top formation near the 0.87525 level, and capping any new advance on the back on these futures price concerns.
Also, RBNZ stated:
"We saw nothing today to change our view that this tightening cycle has a long way to run before it’s all over and done", suggesting a low-likelihood of any added hike in its rate, especially following its 25% cash rate hike on June 11, 2014.
On the Loonie side, #BOC remains in a wait-and-see stance. Its initial consideration was to favor a decline in its rate. However, it also expressed concerns about any rate hike based on its export impact. In fact, consensus so far sees a "positive manufacturing trends and an improving U.S. economy" as a basis for an ulterior rate hike, but none have expressed a likelihood for this rate hike to occur in July 2014 - Rather, an increasing number of economist are suggesting that November would represent the earliest such hike, if at all.
PATTERN ANALYSIS:
On a pure pattern play, this category of trader might perceive the morphing of either Bullish Bat, whose Point-D would complete the pattern at 0.92020, although a more bearishly expectant trader might see a crab completing at a lower 0.89802 level.
PREDICTIVE/FORECASTING MODEL:
The model has produced a bearish market reversal confirmation signal, setting two bearish targets as follows:
1 - TG-1 = 0.92446 - 07 JUL 2014
and
2 - TG-2 = 0.91884 - 07 JUL 2014
These targets are colored to suggest that TG-1 (yellow) represents a moderate-probability target, whereas TG-2 (red) represents a lower-probability target. However, further downside is also probable, based on the recency of the reversal signal and the potential downside revealed by daily and weekly timeframes.
OVERALL:
Bearish outlook is based on the complicity of fundamental, pattern and predictive model data. An interim reaction to the upside remains a possibility as usual, but the technical data favors a downturn so far.
Cheers,
David Alcindor
Predictive & Forecasting Analysis
------------------
Twitter: @4xForecasting
------------------
On a pure fundamental basis, a rate-based directional bias should favor a decline in the NZDCAD pair.
First, NZD was recently affected by a decline in its dairy futures pricing, bringing the currency to a double-top formation near the 0.87525 level, and capping any new advance on the back on these futures price concerns.
Also, RBNZ stated:
"We saw nothing today to change our view that this tightening cycle has a long way to run before it’s all over and done", suggesting a low-likelihood of any added hike in its rate, especially following its 25% cash rate hike on June 11, 2014.
On the Loonie side, #BOC remains in a wait-and-see stance. Its initial consideration was to favor a decline in its rate. However, it also expressed concerns about any rate hike based on its export impact. In fact, consensus so far sees a "positive manufacturing trends and an improving U.S. economy" as a basis for an ulterior rate hike, but none have expressed a likelihood for this rate hike to occur in July 2014 - Rather, an increasing number of economist are suggesting that November would represent the earliest such hike, if at all.
PATTERN ANALYSIS:
On a pure pattern play, this category of trader might perceive the morphing of either Bullish Bat, whose Point-D would complete the pattern at 0.92020, although a more bearishly expectant trader might see a crab completing at a lower 0.89802 level.
PREDICTIVE/FORECASTING MODEL:
The model has produced a bearish market reversal confirmation signal, setting two bearish targets as follows:
1 - TG-1 = 0.92446 - 07 JUL 2014
and
2 - TG-2 = 0.91884 - 07 JUL 2014
These targets are colored to suggest that TG-1 (yellow) represents a moderate-probability target, whereas TG-2 (red) represents a lower-probability target. However, further downside is also probable, based on the recency of the reversal signal and the potential downside revealed by daily and weekly timeframes.
OVERALL:
Bearish outlook is based on the complicity of fundamental, pattern and predictive model data. An interim reaction to the upside remains a possibility as usual, but the technical data favors a downturn so far.
Cheers,
David Alcindor
Predictive & Forecasting Analysis
------------------
Twitter: @4xForecasting
------------------
כתב ויתור
המידע והפרסומים אינם אמורים להיות, ואינם מהווים, עצות פיננסיות, השקעות, מסחר או סוגים אחרים של עצות או המלצות שסופקו או מאושרים על ידי TradingView. קרא עוד בתנאים וההגבלות.
כתב ויתור
המידע והפרסומים אינם אמורים להיות, ואינם מהווים, עצות פיננסיות, השקעות, מסחר או סוגים אחרים של עצות או המלצות שסופקו או מאושרים על ידי TradingView. קרא עוד בתנאים וההגבלות.