NZDUSD Short position.
Firstly, no real major fundamentals on either currency today.
Not that i trade based on these but i am weary of them and how they could move the market adversely compared to my technical analysis.
From 0.6720 to 0.6887 we appear to have an AB leg of a potential ABCD or AB=CD pattern. Price later retraced to 0.6772 level and 61.8% (signalling an ABCD pattern rather than AB=CD). Here at point C had i seen this last week would have been a good Buy zone but i missed it. (always another trading opportunity). As the rules of ABCD patterns suggest,the CD leg should mirror the AB leg (1:1 ratio) which indicates price should move up to the 0.6933 (1.272 extension completing the ABCD pattern) before reversing back down. I then noticed that this looks very similar to a harmonic pattern (namely the gartly) which has two potential entries 78.6 of XA or 1.272 of AB. the 1.272 entry matches the completion zone of the ABCD pattern giving me confluence for the potential move i for see.
I like to see confluence on the high time frames with indicators, price is nearing the over bought marker on the RSI on 4hr. on lower time frames RSI has over bought divergence which is good and so does the MACD. Price also appears to be respecting the 78.6 XA retracement level.
Note this is a trend reversal trade, what agrees with this are potential Harmonics and ABCD patterns emerging at the end of trends so i am confident this will go to plan. but will await price action around the current 78.6 in hope for price to rise to 1.272 before moving lower.
Not that i trade based on these but i am weary of them and how they could move the market adversely compared to my technical analysis.
From 0.6720 to 0.6887 we appear to have an AB leg of a potential ABCD or AB=CD pattern. Price later retraced to 0.6772 level and 61.8% (signalling an ABCD pattern rather than AB=CD). Here at point C had i seen this last week would have been a good Buy zone but i missed it. (always another trading opportunity). As the rules of ABCD patterns suggest,the CD leg should mirror the AB leg (1:1 ratio) which indicates price should move up to the 0.6933 (1.272 extension completing the ABCD pattern) before reversing back down. I then noticed that this looks very similar to a harmonic pattern (namely the gartly) which has two potential entries 78.6 of XA or 1.272 of AB. the 1.272 entry matches the completion zone of the ABCD pattern giving me confluence for the potential move i for see.
I like to see confluence on the high time frames with indicators, price is nearing the over bought marker on the RSI on 4hr. on lower time frames RSI has over bought divergence which is good and so does the MACD. Price also appears to be respecting the 78.6 XA retracement level.
Note this is a trend reversal trade, what agrees with this are potential Harmonics and ABCD patterns emerging at the end of trends so i am confident this will go to plan. but will await price action around the current 78.6 in hope for price to rise to 1.272 before moving lower.
כתב ויתור
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