Kiwi CPI data and RBNZ Gov Wheeler preview/fundamental analysis

25 בינו׳ 2017

This is a daily NZD/USD chart. Later today we have key New Zealand Q4 CPI data and comments from RBNZ Governor Wheeler. Both releases are likely to provide volatility so it would be wise to cover open positions and avoid opening positions around the time of the data and speech (21:45 GMT and 23:00 GMT). Data from New Zealand has been mostly positive since the last rate decision in November where the RBNZ cut rates to a record low 1.50%. Since then, Q3 GDP came in better than expected, and although the prior was revised lower from 0.9% to 0.7%, bullish pressure was observed in NZD. Alongside this the most recent jobs data was beat expectations. We can expect the both the CPI data and RBNZ speech to be encouraging, given the recent positive data as well as Goldman Sachs and Bank of New Zealand stating they see RBNZ hiking rates this year. Wheeler's most recent comments also suggest he sees solid CPI data as he stated the economy is performing relatively well and inflation is to return to preferred range by Q4 (which is 1-3%). With all that said, and the simple fact that New Zealand interest rates are so low, we can expect this data to at least be in line with expectations, possibly even come in better and possibly bullish price action for Kiwi Dollar, but always be wary of manipulation!