11/13/24 - $pgny - Starter position ~$14 post EPS
11/13/24 :: VROCKSTAR :: 
PGNY
Starter position ~$14 post EPS
- don't love the ceo too many "uh's" during the conf call. exhausting to listen to and doesn't build confidence. surprisingly this matters a lot in my process.
- but this is "healthcare" biz so i'll think about it a bit more industrially (ironically)
- after the 13% off move on miss... you're looking at 1.1 bn ish on EV (after net cash). and if you take out the egregious stock comp +/- you conservatively next year could justify 75 mm "clean" FCF so that's about 7% yield. it's a proftable biz w good mgns.
- on 5x EV EBITDA (after the sell off), w/ EBITDA growth still HSD moving perhaps higher, that looks pretty reasonable.
- right now i'm looking to enter names that seem to have decent mkt shares/ moats that aren't just "tech". and where i can presumably build a small 20% of my total book (not just one name!) that i can feel comfortable with my basis enough to rent upside on monthly OTM calls. this is precisely what i am planning to do with
SHLS after y'day's move. for perspective, tho, i have much more confidence in the SHLS valuation vs. PGNY given my experience working w/ solar in the last number of months, so i'm at 25 bps in pgny (which rn is a distraction size and i'd like to get closer to 50 bps if we get into the low 14's and i'll take the stock to a 75-100 bps position if we enter the 12s or 13's if/when). i genuinely think the valuation there would be "too" cheap, so if we do see say low 12s/shr, i might be closer to 1.5% size.
- also i'm not wed to this 25 bps kicker. if the stock just rips back to down 5% today... i might shed it.
what do u guys think on this thing?
V
PGNYStarter position ~$14 post EPS
- don't love the ceo too many "uh's" during the conf call. exhausting to listen to and doesn't build confidence. surprisingly this matters a lot in my process.
- but this is "healthcare" biz so i'll think about it a bit more industrially (ironically)
- after the 13% off move on miss... you're looking at 1.1 bn ish on EV (after net cash). and if you take out the egregious stock comp +/- you conservatively next year could justify 75 mm "clean" FCF so that's about 7% yield. it's a proftable biz w good mgns.
- on 5x EV EBITDA (after the sell off), w/ EBITDA growth still HSD moving perhaps higher, that looks pretty reasonable.
- right now i'm looking to enter names that seem to have decent mkt shares/ moats that aren't just "tech". and where i can presumably build a small 20% of my total book (not just one name!) that i can feel comfortable with my basis enough to rent upside on monthly OTM calls. this is precisely what i am planning to do with
SHLS after y'day's move. for perspective, tho, i have much more confidence in the SHLS valuation vs. PGNY given my experience working w/ solar in the last number of months, so i'm at 25 bps in pgny (which rn is a distraction size and i'd like to get closer to 50 bps if we get into the low 14's and i'll take the stock to a 75-100 bps position if we enter the 12s or 13's if/when). i genuinely think the valuation there would be "too" cheap, so if we do see say low 12s/shr, i might be closer to 1.5% size.- also i'm not wed to this 25 bps kicker. if the stock just rips back to down 5% today... i might shed it.
what do u guys think on this thing?
V
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