The Trend Is Your Friend

18 במרץ 2020

Every time buying volume has spiked over the last two weeks (flags), the channel has dropped lower more rapidly after. This goes to show you that you cannot fight against the trend in this market, which is DOWNWARDS right now. These little bull rallies for the last two weeks have been helping the bears, not the bulls. The more the bulls buy, the more potential sell volume accumulates downstream to accelerate declines.

This is not the time to buy the dip unless you're playing with a huge capital base that can affect price action. And even then, I'd be wary.

19 במרץ 2020

הערה

Short volume for QQQ currently stands at 49% of daily traded volume. Shorts have a good runway in the current condition, regardless of what overnight futures do.

19 במרץ 2020

הערה

Bulls rallied today, however the larger trend is still downwards, and there’s been no material news to support bullish optimism. Market volatility is still increasing on the VIX which means large seismic shocks are still up ahead and potentially larger. Can expect sharp downswings mixed with slightly less upswings keeping the trend downward in the channel until Moderna’s 2nd injection happens in first human patient in the next 26 days. Bailouts and Fed announcements are having minimal effects, as the marker panic is more centered around the actual virus, not the economic effects (yet). Seems like things are still headed for worse before they get better and the market prices will reflect that.

1 באוק׳ 2020

הערה

I wrote that "why would you do this" comment on the day that happened. Glad to know looking back, I was correct.