Expect a red week this week as the SPX plunges toward 2700. Odds of a recession by November have climbed to 62% on the PredictIt prediction market as Russia and Saudi Arabia kick off a price war in oil and gas. As oil and gas prices fall, the risk of upcoming defaults on high-yield corporate "junk bonds" increases greatly. That puts the banking sector at risk, especially because of the "leveraged loans" that big banks have been providing to the oil and gas sector. Meanwhile, coronavirus continues to spread, putting more strain on the travel and entertainment sectors. We're likely to see the number of cases in the US start to rise fairly quickly in the next two weeks, bringing further disruptions. There will be further interest rate cuts, but they're likely good for only a one-day rally. Stay short until we get serious talk of a government junk bond bailout.
הערה:
This week i'm guessing the Dow loses 600-1500 points, and the S&P 500 loses 220-370 points.
הערה:
Dow futures just opened down 800 points, so we're probably looking at the high end on both those estimates.
