1. Biden's bull market benchmark, in terms of gross returns, is Clinton, who watched the S&P 500 index double between 1996 and 2000, according to data compiled by strategist John Normand at JPMorgan.
2. Normand says the initial conditions of a presidential term can determine the market potential of the next administration, given the mean-reverting nature of the business cycle and some asset valuations.
3. Thus a president who takes office during a recession or soon after one, when equities and credit are cheap to their long-run average, is more likely to preside over an economic expansion that delivers above-average gains on risky markets," he says.
(src: Financial Review Nov 11, 2020)