12/09 Weekly SPX Insights

9 בדצמ׳

Last week’s assessment aligned well with the anticipated positive SPX range. The index moved sharply up toward the 6100 area, yet as Friday’s session progressed, the call resistance around 6100 capped further upward momentum.

Looking ahead, I have doubts that the previously unbridled optimism will persist. Currently, we find ourselves in a “chop zone,” suggesting that the short-term direction is less clear.

In aggregating GEX (Gamma Exposure) levels and examining the landscape a week out, it appears that 6100 remains a strong call resistance level. Meanwhile, the HVL (High Volatility Level) has crept closer to around 6080, placing the market uncomfortably close to a higher-volatility environment. Below 6080, the market may experience increased turbulence, potentially retesting 6035 and then 6000.

On the other hand, if the index can break and hold above 6100, an upward gamma squeeze could emerge, pushing prices even higher. Currently, overall GEX sentiment is negative, but the approach toward the HVL zone suggests caution. From these conditions, I’m not expecting a strong, sustained rally in the immediate term.

In terms of intraday and short-term dynamics, 0DTE (same-day expiry) sessions and Fridays continue to hold relatively higher positive gamma exposure compared to other days.

Volatility indicators:

• VIX: remains low
  
• IVR (Implied Volatility Rank): also low
  
• Put Pricing Skew: currently low, although it has begun to show a very slight uptick
  

Key Levels for This Week (for educational reference):

• Above 6100: Omni-bullish environment
  
• Between 6100–6065: Chop zone (directionally uncertain; not ideal for unhedged directional trades)
  
• Below 6080: Bearish tilt, with targets around T1: 6035 and T2: 6000 (near the 16-delta OTM put level)
  

On Wednesday, inflation data is scheduled for release. Anticipation alone may drive volatility, so it’s something to keep on the radar for educational scenario planning.