SPX downward scenarios!

There are two scenarios here demonstrated on the chart. I've been in a long position for the last two days in the market. Right now, I would think of two possible paths for the chart.
1/ A decisive move above 3920: Road to 4100 (70%)
2/ A backward move to the below channel or rejection at 3950: Road to 3505 (30%)
After all, although the trend is downward (even 3210 is a fair target); possible retracement is inevitable as many people are seeking little buy opportunities and many more people are looking for saving their at-risk profit.