SPX 5-0 Pattern Speculation Feb 2017
מעודכן
Underway and still valid
הערה
The last Major Top was in March 2000 that was followed by 9 year bear market consolidation (within 50% range). So it has been 17 years since then. 17 year cycle is one of the most distinct cycles in the US stock market. Clearly we are at a very critical time and price window in that respect. Let's seeהערה
BTW, if this is some Wave 3, then Wave 1 was 202 points, 1.382 FIB extension comes at 2363, so we are almost thereהערה
Big picture, does seem DJT will have the rare chance to elect 5 FED governors by mid 2018. It is significantly likely these to be hard money people like J Taylor/Kevin Warsch meaning QE unwind/strong dollar. So most likely this will be the next incremental step of QE effect elimination and the end of the 2009 cyclical bull. From then on, we will probably meander in a multiyear consolidation within 25/35% downside range (where fiscal policy will fight monetary policy). Seems quite plausibleהערה
This pattern gives a high probability of a correction >10% this year which based on typical year more likely to start late 3Q into 4Qהערה
No Taper upper trendline resistance working well so farהערה
Following the example of 2000 Major Top, SPX topped out initially in late March 2000 that was followed by large and quick >10% decline which was then followed by one final try into late August/early Sep for what was a double top before the beg declines started. So basically we could have tactical top here next few weeks to be followed by a correction and a final top in later 3Q. So then 17 year cycle from 2000 Major Top now and 8.5 year cycle into Sep from Major 2009 bottomהערה
Flow hedging is collapsing so implied volatility is collapsingהערה
Medium term SPX could reach 2600/2650 in 2Q18. Just conceptually this could form as 3 Drive pattern with 1 leg up this 5-0 bullish pattern into 3Q17. Too distant but worth having in mind
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