THIS IS NOT A TRADING ADVICE!!!
US economy is not showing strong signals of recession, however global trade conflicts are causing problems for the future and risking financial sectors, we are in an era of reshaping world trade. Mr.Bullard from FED, in an interview, expressed that "this time is not different" while talking about recession and yield curve, however I am not sure whether or not he is taking into account the effect of trades with negative yield curves. But numbers showing strong evidence that this type of trade has weight on yield curve inversion.
Every progress attempt between US and China ends without success. I believe that China will not sign a deal until they see who will be rival candidate against Trump. I think full peace deal is a dream because problems between China and US have much more depth then foreseen, but a general ceasefire is probable which will give what Trump wants while not ending China's long term targets.
When we look at whole S&P Chart (historical chart www.macrotrends.net/...istorical-chart-data without log-scale and inflation adjustment), we can see that correction started in 2000 and ended in 2009 fits a perfect flat, which makes me think that 2009 bottom is the end of correction 2 of a motive wave. After calculating distances and times, this takes us to a conclusion that we are now ending wave 3.
Monthly view shows a divergence with long term RSI(32).
A closer look shows ABC flat correction of wave 2 and wave 3. Cyan I-II-III-IV-V wave is the motive wave of blue 3. Sub-waves can be followed from the graph.
Now I expect to see a small increase followed by a deeper correction. Correction shall be not as deep as blue 2.
My plan is to wait for the turning point (purple B) and open a sell order to follow.
US economy is not showing strong signals of recession, however global trade conflicts are causing problems for the future and risking financial sectors, we are in an era of reshaping world trade. Mr.Bullard from FED, in an interview, expressed that "this time is not different" while talking about recession and yield curve, however I am not sure whether or not he is taking into account the effect of trades with negative yield curves. But numbers showing strong evidence that this type of trade has weight on yield curve inversion.
Every progress attempt between US and China ends without success. I believe that China will not sign a deal until they see who will be rival candidate against Trump. I think full peace deal is a dream because problems between China and US have much more depth then foreseen, but a general ceasefire is probable which will give what Trump wants while not ending China's long term targets.
When we look at whole S&P Chart (historical chart www.macrotrends.net/...istorical-chart-data without log-scale and inflation adjustment), we can see that correction started in 2000 and ended in 2009 fits a perfect flat, which makes me think that 2009 bottom is the end of correction 2 of a motive wave. After calculating distances and times, this takes us to a conclusion that we are now ending wave 3.
Monthly view shows a divergence with long term RSI(32).
A closer look shows ABC flat correction of wave 2 and wave 3. Cyan I-II-III-IV-V wave is the motive wave of blue 3. Sub-waves can be followed from the graph.
Now I expect to see a small increase followed by a deeper correction. Correction shall be not as deep as blue 2.
My plan is to wait for the turning point (purple B) and open a sell order to follow.
