מדד S&P 500לונג
S&P500 Intra-Day Analysis 13/5/2020
מעודכן
Trying out new strategies and patterns taught to me by a good friend and trader. Here we have a Bearish M supported by a mid term trendline (Orange) forming in the 4H chart, which may possibly lead to an upward movement in price.
Confluences:
- A doji forming at the lowest 4H S/R Zone, turning into an inflection point (as reflected by my modified Fractal indicator) and followed by strong bullish candles, albeit supported by middling volume .
- Price rebounding from the important Fibonacci Retracement ratio of 61.8% after the initial impulsive move.
I trust price will break past the center S/R Zone as long as volume supporting the move is decent. On the off chance price fails to break past, it should seek to rebound off the 61.8% Fibonacci level which coincides with the trendline acting as dynamic S/R. Eventually, price should seek to return to 2950 levels, where it hits the 4H Supply Zone . Having said that, this Supply Zone has been tested around 3 times. Each rejection from the area has been strong, but credibility generally gets weaker with each test. With any chance, price might break through the 4H Supply Zone and turn it to a simple S/R Zone.
Bullish in the short and mid term (Scalps and Swings). Nothing much to say about scalping. Generally enough volatility in price to make good profits but I would personally do so with a Bullish bias, as price has generally been uptrending. For swing trades, my trade idea is on the graph. TP level is at the border of the 4H Supply Zone . The Bearish M suggests price should break through the 4H Supply Zone , and you may collect 50% profits while letting the other 50% run. Set your SL slightly below the Monthly trendline (Purple) for a good Risk/Reward ratio. Those that are more conservative may set their SLs slightly below the 78.6% Fibonacci level.
Confluences:
- A doji forming at the lowest 4H S/R Zone, turning into an inflection point (as reflected by my modified Fractal indicator) and followed by strong bullish candles, albeit supported by middling volume .
- Price rebounding from the important Fibonacci Retracement ratio of 61.8% after the initial impulsive move.
I trust price will break past the center S/R Zone as long as volume supporting the move is decent. On the off chance price fails to break past, it should seek to rebound off the 61.8% Fibonacci level which coincides with the trendline acting as dynamic S/R. Eventually, price should seek to return to 2950 levels, where it hits the 4H Supply Zone . Having said that, this Supply Zone has been tested around 3 times. Each rejection from the area has been strong, but credibility generally gets weaker with each test. With any chance, price might break through the 4H Supply Zone and turn it to a simple S/R Zone.
Bullish in the short and mid term (Scalps and Swings). Nothing much to say about scalping. Generally enough volatility in price to make good profits but I would personally do so with a Bullish bias, as price has generally been uptrending. For swing trades, my trade idea is on the graph. TP level is at the border of the 4H Supply Zone . The Bearish M suggests price should break through the 4H Supply Zone , and you may collect 50% profits while letting the other 50% run. Set your SL slightly below the Monthly trendline (Purple) for a good Risk/Reward ratio. Those that are more conservative may set their SLs slightly below the 78.6% Fibonacci level.
עסקה סגורה: הגיע לסטופ
Shortly after analysis, price spiked downwards, breaking both 4H and Daily trendlines and invalidating trade idea. Price hit the conservative SL below the 78.6% Fibonacci Retracement Level and nearly reaching the Monthly Trendline. Potential Head and Shoulders formed which has broken the neckline, but a hammer candle formed right after the downward spike with <2/3 volume of the spike. Would wait for more confirmation signals before re-entering.
כתב ויתור
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