Back to the technicals
Well. Hope everyone made it through these past couple months. Both figuratively and literally, and hope everyone is holding up alright.
I've been a spectator for the past month or so after getting rekt pretty early on in this onslaught trying to catch the bounce (there was no bounce), and honestly was kind of content after witnessing the scale of what just happened.
So, it happened. The market melt down a lot of us had been awaiting finally came to fruition. The shaky house of cards finally came tumbling down. I was referencing poor market structure, gaps, and overall financial judo before we got to the top. But with all the behind us it's time to get back to the technicals.
We found a temporary bottom on everything it seems. The market has finally stabilized (mostly) enough to where you can finally get a handle on what is happening. The past month it was literally like the hunger games, mad max, or the thunderdome, or something. It was insane to watch and just like all technicals were being washed out with this last run up, they were all washed out with the pure tsunami of selling that we just witnessed. With the VIX finally exhausting itself we should see some normalcy (ha ha) come back into the market, as much as it can.
We obviously bounced, which was long overdue after we finally are becoming accustomed to this blistering news cycle. But believe me, it's going get worse still. Today we did get rejected from the .382 fib retracement from peak to trough. Also getting a rejection off the weekly 200 period MA. I personally think we're going to range in a 15-20% bound from the bottom over the course of the next month or two (possibly longer, possibly shorter, obviously) but ultimately i think we will retrace even further. the Fed has literally thrown everything including the kitchen sink to have a Custer's last stand in financial markets. But like i said, ultimately this stupid re-inflate the bubble mentality has to eventually fail absolutely. in my opinion.
With that being said we do have some pretty serious gaps to fill up to about $300 or 3000 on SPX. It's not beyond the realm of possibility we have that "rapid recovery" the financial media is trying to tout and get a suckers rallying back to that area while smart money starts selling it for the next wave down. This could the the B wave of an ABC corrective wave down after the longest bull market in history.
But with that being said that would be "normal" but nothing has been "normal" the past couple months.
It looks like they tried to park us right on the monthly 50 period MA but just missed. We almost perfectly tested the 100 period. Overall weakness will be the theme these coming months. In some way, shape, or form i am expecting a test of the monthly 200 period MA before years end. Could be next week, could be end of year. The current predicament we're in, as a modern society, will not pass anytime soon. And it will not "normalize" for much longer after that. People need to understand the gravity of that. Things have changed, maybe even permanently. We're not going to even start to see the full economic impact of this for another 6 months, with unemployment numbers most likely eclipsing the great depression. I honestly feel like we're in deep, deep shit and monetary policy has essentially began to become worn out, and ineffective. The ship is sinking.
I feel like in true bear market fashion this will dead cat. but we'll most likely find support at earlier month lows. We'll be undecided when it comes to a direction before the consolidation is complete and we move lower. Watch out for the gaps. They act like magnets for price. Do not be surprised if and when we go to fill those before we eventually make that move lower. Keep your head on a swivel, and wash your hands.
Good luck everyone.
*this is not trading advice. This is based off my own personal analysis and technical analysis. Do not base trades off of this information in particular.*
I've been a spectator for the past month or so after getting rekt pretty early on in this onslaught trying to catch the bounce (there was no bounce), and honestly was kind of content after witnessing the scale of what just happened.
So, it happened. The market melt down a lot of us had been awaiting finally came to fruition. The shaky house of cards finally came tumbling down. I was referencing poor market structure, gaps, and overall financial judo before we got to the top. But with all the behind us it's time to get back to the technicals.
We found a temporary bottom on everything it seems. The market has finally stabilized (mostly) enough to where you can finally get a handle on what is happening. The past month it was literally like the hunger games, mad max, or the thunderdome, or something. It was insane to watch and just like all technicals were being washed out with this last run up, they were all washed out with the pure tsunami of selling that we just witnessed. With the VIX finally exhausting itself we should see some normalcy (ha ha) come back into the market, as much as it can.
We obviously bounced, which was long overdue after we finally are becoming accustomed to this blistering news cycle. But believe me, it's going get worse still. Today we did get rejected from the .382 fib retracement from peak to trough. Also getting a rejection off the weekly 200 period MA. I personally think we're going to range in a 15-20% bound from the bottom over the course of the next month or two (possibly longer, possibly shorter, obviously) but ultimately i think we will retrace even further. the Fed has literally thrown everything including the kitchen sink to have a Custer's last stand in financial markets. But like i said, ultimately this stupid re-inflate the bubble mentality has to eventually fail absolutely. in my opinion.
With that being said we do have some pretty serious gaps to fill up to about $300 or 3000 on SPX. It's not beyond the realm of possibility we have that "rapid recovery" the financial media is trying to tout and get a suckers rallying back to that area while smart money starts selling it for the next wave down. This could the the B wave of an ABC corrective wave down after the longest bull market in history.
But with that being said that would be "normal" but nothing has been "normal" the past couple months.
It looks like they tried to park us right on the monthly 50 period MA but just missed. We almost perfectly tested the 100 period. Overall weakness will be the theme these coming months. In some way, shape, or form i am expecting a test of the monthly 200 period MA before years end. Could be next week, could be end of year. The current predicament we're in, as a modern society, will not pass anytime soon. And it will not "normalize" for much longer after that. People need to understand the gravity of that. Things have changed, maybe even permanently. We're not going to even start to see the full economic impact of this for another 6 months, with unemployment numbers most likely eclipsing the great depression. I honestly feel like we're in deep, deep shit and monetary policy has essentially began to become worn out, and ineffective. The ship is sinking.
I feel like in true bear market fashion this will dead cat. but we'll most likely find support at earlier month lows. We'll be undecided when it comes to a direction before the consolidation is complete and we move lower. Watch out for the gaps. They act like magnets for price. Do not be surprised if and when we go to fill those before we eventually make that move lower. Keep your head on a swivel, and wash your hands.
Good luck everyone.
*this is not trading advice. This is based off my own personal analysis and technical analysis. Do not base trades off of this information in particular.*
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