Waiting for one more Rise before Break

19 בפבר׳ 2016

Roughly 30 days ago, a move to 195 seemed in order, followed by a significant drop. SPY hit roughly 194.50, but unfortunately I wasn't nimble enough or savvy enough to short on that day and eventually watched it drop quickly with my hands in my pockets. Action on 2/11 made me wary that a fresh lows were not probable, so I nibbled on some long calls, which obviously worked. Now I return to my originally premise, but now with the belief we must go higher than 195, (perhaps 197-200?) before the real sell-off. As soon as we get to 197, I intend to short significantly with long puts, even if that means suffering some upside pain in the short term to 200. Hopefully we get these moves within two months.