SPY Update (weekly chart)
Quite a bull run, last week we hit the Point & figure (P&F) target of 443 set long ago.
The current run appears over-extended, being at the top of the channel set from the October 2022 low to present. Also, the RSI(9) on daily and RSI(12) on weekly (neither shown here) are overbought. The B to C run at 1.68 % extension also is showing some excess over the theoretical Gartley 1.618 move. Also, SOX and SMH are showing some signs of rolling over.
After touching the 443 P&F target, the week fell back and closed out at 439.46, below the APEX of the volume profile (red arrow on the right). Potential resistance.
I am liking the prospects of a pullback next week from C to D to 412.26, or around the 50% retrace line (drawn from 2022 high to low) at 414.04. That would be about 6% pullback.
Of course, the bull run could continue next week, at which point I would expect an intermediate top out at 454.05, or prior swing high. Given paragraphs 2 and 3 above, I don't expect this next week.
Are we in a new bull market? We are getting there, but I remain cautious.
The current run appears over-extended, being at the top of the channel set from the October 2022 low to present. Also, the RSI(9) on daily and RSI(12) on weekly (neither shown here) are overbought. The B to C run at 1.68 % extension also is showing some excess over the theoretical Gartley 1.618 move. Also, SOX and SMH are showing some signs of rolling over.
After touching the 443 P&F target, the week fell back and closed out at 439.46, below the APEX of the volume profile (red arrow on the right). Potential resistance.
I am liking the prospects of a pullback next week from C to D to 412.26, or around the 50% retrace line (drawn from 2022 high to low) at 414.04. That would be about 6% pullback.
Of course, the bull run could continue next week, at which point I would expect an intermediate top out at 454.05, or prior swing high. Given paragraphs 2 and 3 above, I don't expect this next week.
Are we in a new bull market? We are getting there, but I remain cautious.
כתב ויתור
המידע והפרסומים אינם אמורים להיות, ואינם מהווים, עצות פיננסיות, השקעות, מסחר או סוגים אחרים של עצות או המלצות שסופקו או מאושרים על ידי TradingView. קרא עוד בתנאים וההגבלות.
כתב ויתור
המידע והפרסומים אינם אמורים להיות, ואינם מהווים, עצות פיננסיות, השקעות, מסחר או סוגים אחרים של עצות או המלצות שסופקו או מאושרים על ידי TradingView. קרא עוד בתנאים וההגבלות.