SPY - ST Disturbance in the Farce
מעודכן
A solid Tip:
Ignoring the CME Fed Watch Tool is a best practice as it is now moving
around the Cake Walk Lines and blurring them with swings in sentiment.
Please observe what the FED actually controls (outside of rando YCC).
2YY or the 2 Year Yield Futures is the best practice.
The Spread between EFF (Effective Federal Funds Rate) and the 2YY
tells you ALL you need to know.
EFF - 2.53
2YY - 3.28
ie. - No guessing as to what the September FED OMCM will bring - 75 BPS.
________________________________________________________________
Financial Media drones on about the "Pivot" - and keeping participants
focused upon Multiple Expansion and assorted trinkets of Hope.
That was until yesterday.
Suddenly the narratives turned worriesome...
Q3 EPS will be uninspiring at best.
Multiples may have gotten ahead of themselves.
China appears to be expanding lockdowns.
MonkeyPox is now a renewed threat.
Well timed to $2.12 Trillion Expiration.
________________________________________________________________
The Symmetry of the Advance from Mid-June Lows is a simple 8/8 structure
with some Demark 9 Counts tossed in for further confusion, to inspire the
5 Day EMA dip buyers.
It's worked so far... and there's no shortage of Degenerate Gambling at the
Flamingo. Friday's SPY Options @ 423 were bought +$5 only to be wrecked
and then scalped by the Degens after 1 PM EST into the Final hour with wild
80% to 200% gains into its demise.
The Gunslingers are extremely active on large Monthly Expirations, firing off
bets on leverage in repeated attempts to hook the Close.
________________________________________________________________
Wall Street had masked the Volumes against Max Pain once again with Thursday
Put Volumes reaching extremes. The Die was cast, Retail buying up to 445 SPY,
Smart $ was clustered off 2 key pivots for lower 427.73 and 423.22 for Lower.
Bulls had run into a wall of hurry for the SELL, but pressed their luck as the
real Wagers came off hard - COIN, GME, AMC, BBBY. Junk Co Junk was flagpoled
only to puke blood once again.
Apple, MSFT, TSLA, and assorted 711s turned the nightshift into a Donut Hole contest
by reversing after Apple's higher Gap Fill which coincided with iPhone 14 release and
an assurance that Apple would be on par to deliver 90+ Million Smart Phones again
for 2022. Another matter of National Security, and yet another lie.
Accounting Fraud is pervasive in most Hyper Cap Equities... it is a matter of National
Security - as now, more than ever the Market for Junk Co Junk Stocks is the Economy
of the Hoi Polloi, Plebes, and Walking Dead - us, in other words.
Them... they could care less, it's planned implosion.
Sideshows remain the preferred distraction - Eron buying Manchester United Stake or
touting a merger with a competitor as a potentially good thing. Apparently, TeslaBot
will have a butthole, for its charging port - all life-changing developments.
________________________________________________________________
The Distribution Range is what they need to hold, for now, they'll need to collect fuel
on the downside to holding it, there is a great deal of Junk Co to pass along to the Public.
Increased VX is to be anticipated now that settlement is behind us. Buying out the Curve
once again proved to be a winner, although CASH VX Calls remain quite high @ $27.60 for
December 20's - the netter trade was M1 / M2 VXM's off the 23.30 level for the win. We did
as suggested - the better trade. Even ole UVXY hooked a win for the day, but on the week,
completely wrecked - 11 to 8.5 will do that.
Volatility will rear its ugly head once again, it will be a process, until its not.
________________________________________________________________
Troubling signs abound.
AMZN / META was Tech's big losers again.
Bullish Percent Charts remain heavy after the 92% Greed o' Meter reversed.
Financials (XLF/NQ BANK/KRE) puked, down almost 2% on Volume - Distro.
XLU is overextended, the rotational flight to safety tends to get ahead of
itself very quickly as do Bonds.
ZN/ZB/TLT pukes again on Safety bids.
QQQ's rocked for 2.28% - Bearish crossover - Distro Day. Where will they cook it?
IWM - 2.85%
Memes - Collapse.
BTS - no 25K, 17.5 retests and break ahead. ETH - junked after Micro Blow Off.
More worrisome is the Dollar DX DXY Uncle Buck the Widowmaker.
109.14 appears to be ripe for challenge, while the FX Bears were looking for an outright collapse
as it was going to fail again... wrong again.
The Dollar will grind to 112s with relative ease over time, and then far higher. The clock is ticking
as Bond ROC's and VX are building steam, a great deal of it.
Oil is attempting to see signs of Life again, Buffet buying up OXY due to its Carbon Capture
technology, one of the more advanced in the World.
Jackson Ahole begins Friday and concludes Sunday - the Pivotal pre-FOMC Junket.
Vertical moves have led to 21/55 in High Slope, these need to begin to flatten out to signal
continuing Distro and a far larger Pullback.
Vol of Vol needs to cross back over 93.58 in order to resolve the Bearish Price action appearing
"Not too Bearish" in Market Pyscho's Mental State.
A State of further unease is beginning to develop ;)
Ignoring the CME Fed Watch Tool is a best practice as it is now moving
around the Cake Walk Lines and blurring them with swings in sentiment.
Please observe what the FED actually controls (outside of rando YCC).
2YY or the 2 Year Yield Futures is the best practice.
The Spread between EFF (Effective Federal Funds Rate) and the 2YY
tells you ALL you need to know.
EFF - 2.53
2YY - 3.28
ie. - No guessing as to what the September FED OMCM will bring - 75 BPS.
________________________________________________________________
Financial Media drones on about the "Pivot" - and keeping participants
focused upon Multiple Expansion and assorted trinkets of Hope.
That was until yesterday.
Suddenly the narratives turned worriesome...
Q3 EPS will be uninspiring at best.
Multiples may have gotten ahead of themselves.
China appears to be expanding lockdowns.
MonkeyPox is now a renewed threat.
Well timed to $2.12 Trillion Expiration.
________________________________________________________________
The Symmetry of the Advance from Mid-June Lows is a simple 8/8 structure
with some Demark 9 Counts tossed in for further confusion, to inspire the
5 Day EMA dip buyers.
It's worked so far... and there's no shortage of Degenerate Gambling at the
Flamingo. Friday's SPY Options @ 423 were bought +$5 only to be wrecked
and then scalped by the Degens after 1 PM EST into the Final hour with wild
80% to 200% gains into its demise.
The Gunslingers are extremely active on large Monthly Expirations, firing off
bets on leverage in repeated attempts to hook the Close.
________________________________________________________________
Wall Street had masked the Volumes against Max Pain once again with Thursday
Put Volumes reaching extremes. The Die was cast, Retail buying up to 445 SPY,
Smart $ was clustered off 2 key pivots for lower 427.73 and 423.22 for Lower.
Bulls had run into a wall of hurry for the SELL, but pressed their luck as the
real Wagers came off hard - COIN, GME, AMC, BBBY. Junk Co Junk was flagpoled
only to puke blood once again.
Apple, MSFT, TSLA, and assorted 711s turned the nightshift into a Donut Hole contest
by reversing after Apple's higher Gap Fill which coincided with iPhone 14 release and
an assurance that Apple would be on par to deliver 90+ Million Smart Phones again
for 2022. Another matter of National Security, and yet another lie.
Accounting Fraud is pervasive in most Hyper Cap Equities... it is a matter of National
Security - as now, more than ever the Market for Junk Co Junk Stocks is the Economy
of the Hoi Polloi, Plebes, and Walking Dead - us, in other words.
Them... they could care less, it's planned implosion.
Sideshows remain the preferred distraction - Eron buying Manchester United Stake or
touting a merger with a competitor as a potentially good thing. Apparently, TeslaBot
will have a butthole, for its charging port - all life-changing developments.
________________________________________________________________
The Distribution Range is what they need to hold, for now, they'll need to collect fuel
on the downside to holding it, there is a great deal of Junk Co to pass along to the Public.
Increased VX is to be anticipated now that settlement is behind us. Buying out the Curve
once again proved to be a winner, although CASH VX Calls remain quite high @ $27.60 for
December 20's - the netter trade was M1 / M2 VXM's off the 23.30 level for the win. We did
as suggested - the better trade. Even ole UVXY hooked a win for the day, but on the week,
completely wrecked - 11 to 8.5 will do that.
Volatility will rear its ugly head once again, it will be a process, until its not.
________________________________________________________________
Troubling signs abound.
AMZN / META was Tech's big losers again.
Bullish Percent Charts remain heavy after the 92% Greed o' Meter reversed.
Financials (XLF/NQ BANK/KRE) puked, down almost 2% on Volume - Distro.
XLU is overextended, the rotational flight to safety tends to get ahead of
itself very quickly as do Bonds.
ZN/ZB/TLT pukes again on Safety bids.
QQQ's rocked for 2.28% - Bearish crossover - Distro Day. Where will they cook it?
IWM - 2.85%
Memes - Collapse.
BTS - no 25K, 17.5 retests and break ahead. ETH - junked after Micro Blow Off.
More worrisome is the Dollar DX DXY Uncle Buck the Widowmaker.
109.14 appears to be ripe for challenge, while the FX Bears were looking for an outright collapse
as it was going to fail again... wrong again.
The Dollar will grind to 112s with relative ease over time, and then far higher. The clock is ticking
as Bond ROC's and VX are building steam, a great deal of it.
Oil is attempting to see signs of Life again, Buffet buying up OXY due to its Carbon Capture
technology, one of the more advanced in the World.
Jackson Ahole begins Friday and concludes Sunday - the Pivotal pre-FOMC Junket.
Vertical moves have led to 21/55 in High Slope, these need to begin to flatten out to signal
continuing Distro and a far larger Pullback.
Vol of Vol needs to cross back over 93.58 in order to resolve the Bearish Price action appearing
"Not too Bearish" in Market Pyscho's Mental State.
A State of further unease is beginning to develop ;)
הערה
NQ Crossed back into Bear Market below 13,414 the Pivot.הערה
DJT 14,000 - 14,500 SupportYM 34250 closed down 8.8% from all-time Highs.
32,200 - 33,100 Support.
34.500 Sets up the Larger Extension
כתב ויתור
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