Market Crash Prediction Update

20 ביולי

It's been about a month or so since I first began to publish bearish ideas and it was a rough few weeks after being wrong about that, but that's how it goes. Picking the top is difficult. I was very confident in my thesis overall, but we're dealing with multi-year patterns and it was dumb to make a shorter term bet based on them.

These things can overshoot and go on far longer than anyone thinks. We got the pullback I was looking for finally and It's possible this recent pullback could turn into something a lot worse. I think where we open on Monday is critical and we should have some direction once we see where things open if it is not flat.

A lot of my bearish ideas are beginning to work out, but really we're just now back to the area where I got burned shorting the last time. It's make or break for bulls here IMO. 5500 on SPX, 20k on NQ, and a VX breakout. Sitting at some major support levels while VX is making new highs, a recipe for disaster for those who end up on the wrong side.