My perspective on this weeks market action. First idea, hope it's helpful!
Historically the Daily 200ma is a strong bullish or bearish pivot, and has formed a perfect resistance line. In addition a large number of equities are now approaching or testing their own 200ma, and will either find support or break lower, so i am expecting volatility this week as traders will either be stocking up or panic selling. I'm looking to take a swing position to capitalize on a move above or below our recently formed congestion pattern.
]If SPY closes a 1hr candle above 200ma and resistance i will be looking for long setups for the next week or two.
If SPY breaks below recent support and fails to close above 200ma, i will go short as i expect to break down further for a full 15-20% correction from ATHs.
We can of course continue sideways in this channel, which i think would signal accumulation, and will sit on my hands for a while longer, but with current market conditions i think this is the least likely scenario.
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