SPY- Broadsword calling Dannyboy
מעודכן
Sorry, I haven't updated in two days I've been stricken by a terrible case of the flu.
Ascending Broadening Wedge Pattern, for about 10 days.
These are distributive in nature and usually end up in selling down, especially when they are ascending (expanding to the upside)
We broke MAJOR resistance at 281 right?
Yes we did, but after two weeks have yet to have done anything impulsively. We should have had an impulse within the first few minutes or seconds of breaking out of the major resistance. The fact that we got above a major level without impulsing or having aggressive buy volume come in is a big red flag. This further points to a potential Bull Trap (as my last post was titled)
A bull trap is confirmed once we break back below that same 'major resistance' at about 281; or, once we break the horizontal bottom of this current broadening ascending wedge pattern 280.23. Also, keep your eye on a break of the blue channel I have drawn. This is a nice set up for a triple confirmation of a breakdown and to make it easy you could just say 280 is the major level that I am watching.
We do finally have significant bearish divergence now that we have had a high (Feb 25) and then a higher high (March 18 & Yesterday). The yellow line on the RSI shows the divergence.
Nasdaq and SPY are the only areas of the market that have continued higher since Feb 25!!!!!!!
Dow Jones (DJI) has not made higher highs in the last two weeks
Midcaps (MDY) have not made higher highs in the last two weeks
Russell 2k (IWM) has not made higher highs in the last two weeks
And many many other indicies.
QQQ- has increased in value but it has not broken any sturcture. QQQ is a nasdaq composite that is overall down except for the FAANG stocks which have been the lionshare of QQQ's upwardmovement as they are a flight to safety (reference: Right Side of the Chart video 1 or 2 days ago)
SPY - has broken structure but has not done so impulsivly strongly implying a bull trap (ref: last analysis, titled, "bull trap?")
I will provide updates to this analysis on the DJI, MDY, IWM for you to see what I am talking about for thier big picture weakness, in about 2 hours when I return.
No trade to make short until 280 is broken with stops above that level and or the highs.
: ) happy trading.
I have to run-I was in a bit of a rush- if i forgot somehthing I will update this analysis.
Ascending Broadening Wedge Pattern, for about 10 days.
These are distributive in nature and usually end up in selling down, especially when they are ascending (expanding to the upside)
We broke MAJOR resistance at 281 right?
Yes we did, but after two weeks have yet to have done anything impulsively. We should have had an impulse within the first few minutes or seconds of breaking out of the major resistance. The fact that we got above a major level without impulsing or having aggressive buy volume come in is a big red flag. This further points to a potential Bull Trap (as my last post was titled)
A bull trap is confirmed once we break back below that same 'major resistance' at about 281; or, once we break the horizontal bottom of this current broadening ascending wedge pattern 280.23. Also, keep your eye on a break of the blue channel I have drawn. This is a nice set up for a triple confirmation of a breakdown and to make it easy you could just say 280 is the major level that I am watching.
We do finally have significant bearish divergence now that we have had a high (Feb 25) and then a higher high (March 18 & Yesterday). The yellow line on the RSI shows the divergence.
Nasdaq and SPY are the only areas of the market that have continued higher since Feb 25!!!!!!!
Dow Jones (DJI) has not made higher highs in the last two weeks
Midcaps (MDY) have not made higher highs in the last two weeks
Russell 2k (IWM) has not made higher highs in the last two weeks
And many many other indicies.
QQQ- has increased in value but it has not broken any sturcture. QQQ is a nasdaq composite that is overall down except for the FAANG stocks which have been the lionshare of QQQ's upwardmovement as they are a flight to safety (reference: Right Side of the Chart video 1 or 2 days ago)
SPY - has broken structure but has not done so impulsivly strongly implying a bull trap (ref: last analysis, titled, "bull trap?")
I will provide updates to this analysis on the DJI, MDY, IWM for you to see what I am talking about for thier big picture weakness, in about 2 hours when I return.
No trade to make short until 280 is broken with stops above that level and or the highs.
: ) happy trading.
I have to run-I was in a bit of a rush- if i forgot somehthing I will update this analysis.
הערה
DJI הערה
Midcaps (MDY)הערה
Russell 2000 (IWM) הערה
The strongest is the Nasdaq due to its "very strong" FAANG stocks, yet it hasn't broken any market structure either.הערה
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XLF financials taking a huge hit הערה
OK----- Back to the SPY- Yes, we are in a multi-market meltdown with the SPY and Nasdaq as last men standing for the moment. Please let me know if there is another sector that is staying strong, but as far as I can tell they are all down pretty hefty like.
Here is the lower timeframe on SPY- Doing exactly as discussed earlier today and at the major level that I mentioned. I mentioned that the trade set up would be a break of 280 so watch closely
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We have broken all 3 support lines as previously mentioned. הערה
Any impulse down from here would confirm that for the past 2 weeks we have been living within a bull trap. These when thrown over like this, produce a lot of selling as bulls get squeezed.הערה
Breakdown: Confirmed הערה
Bulls trying to stop the breakdown. watch: 280.43 if it is surpassed to the upside and upheld then feel free to manage risk on your shorts as that was the original trade plan. הערה
For this very historic retest of the broadening wedge pattern, I will zoom into the 1-minute chart. We see volume is declining on the bounce showing a current lack of conviction, more like a desperate attempt. It already looks to be rolling over. הערה
If we surpass this level 280.43 once again then to manage your risk, close the positions that you just put on at this same level; you should be about breakeven on trade. הערה
We did not break my level of 280.43 so you should still be in your trades. Keep in mind this could potentially morph into a bear flag consolidation outlined in the grey ascending box territory. הערה
Potentially for bear flag consolidation is now minimized as we broke its micro trendlineהערה
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Flirting with the bear flag structure. 279.80 is confirmed price level. הערה
Red lines (dotted) where to close shorts off of their breaks. Currently looks like we are breaking down form this structure as its retesting the bottom as resistance. הערה
*support Currently inching below that support at 279.79
sell volume increasing. soon to be confirmed for further down impulse
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This pattern is being supported, and hesitating longer than it should. This makes me cautious about the potential to break back above 280.44 which is our level to close your recent shorts put on for its breakout. We could see a melt-up after the dramatic selling today, and the fact that we broke down from support and get back above it would be bullish (SHORT TERM) This is where trading gets murky, in such cases just stick to your trade plan. This plan was to manage risk at 280.44 and get back in upon any breaks back below lows. Good Luck. הערה
Trade Closed: Broke our Risk Management Stop Lossהערה
Reentry possible as we broke below our level on this trap. הערה
These are the levels you could use for this micro timeframe consolidation הערה
Sorry for the delay my daily routine has me missing some gaps in the trading day. I wanted to take a moment and zoom everything out to give us some larger TF perspective. We have consolidated right at the intersection of these three support levels that I outlined in the original post. This looks to be a normal, very standard bear flag at the moment. These flags should have declining volume until they're getting close to breaking out. I think that if this thing can close above 281 support (pink horizontal) then next Monday we could see a slight bounce to 283 followed by a final breakdown of this area. There is only an hour left of trading today so I am thinking that the breakdown will be delayed for next week, as Fridays and end of the day typically are uneventful. Of course, this bear flag could get sold into and break within the next hour depending on who steps up to the plate here in the next hour. A small bounce Monday to 283 and then the final fade and decomposition would be fine as well. Adios until Monday. Have great weekend traders.
Stay safe, stay snappy.
הערה
A break down of the bear flag it is... be very cautious as the end of day trading gets pretty crazy. in either case, long term projections are down from here over the next 6-12months.
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