CRYPTOS: Time to go towards 0 OR $1m?

29 בנוב׳ 2022

While Crypto’s reputation has been undermined in the past, the speeches for their lifetime, their real value, and eventually their price, give investors enough ‘food’ for estimating where they could go under the recent circumstances after the collapse of FTX. There are many opinions heard from distinguished economists to big investors who say that Cryptos can go to zero or even 1M (particularly for Bitcoin).

The founder and CEO of the investment company ARK Invest, Cathie Wood, impressed with her prediction for Bitcoin. As she said, the leading cryptocurrency will reach seven-figure levels by 2030. In particular, in response to a question during an interview with Bloomberg about whether she stands by her prediction that Bitcoin will reach $1 million in eight years, said she is. Of course, despite stating that Bitcoin will come out of the recession “smelling like a rose,” Wood said investors will feel more comfortable putting money into Bitcoin as well as Ethereum (ETH) once they better understand what’s going on. Technology has bypassed this entire crisis. Bitcoin’s hash rate is at an all-time high, and this is a true indication of the network’s security. In Ethereum, the total value staking is $24 billion. This is an all-time high. So, the infrastructure is working nicely, noted.

Billionaire Tim Draper spectacularly revises his prediction for Bitcoin (BTC) to reach levels above $250,000 – a meteoric rise of more than 1,400% from the cryptocurrency king’s current levels, which will make it new gold. As for whether, amid this difficult period for the market, Bitcoin could reach these levels, Draper reveals what he believes would be the catalyst that would fuel a rally to $250,000. And the reason is that at some point you’re going to be buying food, clothes, and shelter in Bitcoin. Therefore, the real power is women. Women control 80% of retail, food, clothing, and shelter spending. In the past, one in 14 women had a Bitcoin wallet in the US, while now the ratio is one in six. And when women realize they can get a discount by paying in Bitcoin, when retailers realize they can double their profits by accepting Bitcoin, the currency will move pretty quickly to new highs.

Even if the value of Bitcoin doesn’t go to zero, there is a serious possibility that the cryptocurrency industry will start heading towards oblivion, says Paul Krugman in an article in the New York Times. Cryptos reached the height of its popularity last year when Matt Damon’s ‘Fortune favors the brave’ commercial – sponsored by Singapore-based exchange Crypto.com – first aired. At the time, Bitcoin was the most famous cryptocurrency worth over $60,000. Bitcoin is now trading below $17,000. So, people who bought after seeing Damon’s ad lost more than 70% of their investment. In fact, since those who bought Bitcoin did so when its price was high, most investors in the currency — about three-quarters of them, according to a new analysis by the Bank for International Settlements — have lost money so far.

On the other hand, the Economist’s analysis concludes that although fewer people will use crypto as a result of FTX’s collapse, it’s very hard to imagine that number will be small enough to nullify its value. Also, If only everyone would stop using it the cryptocurrency market will be zeroed out. But what would have to happen for everyone to give up? Pulling the rug out from all this edifice is extremely difficult, and the current high value of bitcoin and Ether makes it even more difficult. To attack a blockchain and shut it down, it is required to gain control of 51% of the computing power or the value of tokens staked to verify transactions.

The more valuable the tokens, the more energy it takes to attack a proof-of-work chain like Bitcoin, and the more money it takes to attack a proof-of-stake chain like Ethereum. The security of these chains (blockchains) – as measured by the amount someone would have to spend to attack them – currently ranges between 5 and 10 billion dollars. It would take either a government or an extremely wealthy individual to carry out such an attack. And even if Elon Musk was in such a mood, he seems to be a bit busy at the moment.

If one takes a closer look at the system, one will notice that most of them, except for Terra-Luna, are in the “on top of” category and not on-chain technology. DeFi exchanges and lending protocols continued to flounder even as businesses that looked more like normal businesses collapsed one after another. But the collapse of these businesses could compromise the underlying technology, removing chunks of its value, making blockchains more exposed to would-be attackers, and prompting miners or stakers to disable their machines. The value of on-chain activity and tokens is self-reinforcing. The more people use Defi, the more valuable Ethereum becomes. The higher the price of Ether, the higher the barrier to attacking the blockchain and the more confidence people will have that these chains will endure. This works the other way around too. The more people avoid encryption out of fear, the less secure it becomes.

The total market capitalization of cryptocurrencies today stands at $820 billion. That’s 70% below the peak a year ago, but still high compared to most of crypto history. It’s higher than early last year, for example, and any point before that, including the peak of the 2017 bull market.

From Elliott wave perspective, we are observing two different interpretations for the Crypto total market cap chart, however, both counts suggest that support can be near, at least temporary one. On the first count, we are tracking an A-B-C correction, where final wave C can be now in play, sitting at important 2017 highs and equal wave length A=C. In the secondary count, there’s a chance for a five-wave drop into first leg A of a bigger and deeper A-B-C correction, but even this count indicates for a corrective rally in wave B, as we see it trading in final stages of wave (5) of A. Ideally, we will see a reversal in 2023, but support for a fifth wave based on Fibs can be at around 400B. That's still far away, so be carefully with these assets. It’s still a bear market after-all.