Late Cycle 101 (Comes down to Q2/Q3 Corp Profits)

28 ביוני 2019

Late Cycle indicators. Watch for yield curve steepening. As Druckmiller says, a recession can not be official without a corporate profit recession which leads to significant repricing of equity. It appears we are at the inflection point of another 2016 or repeat of 2000, 2007...Q2/Q3 is the do or die. If we get through without negative YOY earnings , it could be another 2016. This will be a big quarter for the market to determine if bond holders or equity bulls have it right. Without a system shock event, corp profits is the only thing that can cause an official recession. Otherwise its just a massive slowdown and Q4 2018 could have been the final act before spreads steepen.