שורט

TSLA GAP Squeeze and Distribution

מעודכן

Great area to open short position. Markets are moving into blow-off top (short-term) time for pull back and Institutional money to take part in the Market

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adjusting stop-loss to 192.75

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adjust stop-loss to $190.5

עסקה סגורה: הגיע לסטופ

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Re-entering position

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adding to position at 197.5 - same stop loss

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Day Traders can start scalping at this position

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weekly anchored VWAP is at 178 - expect buyers

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8:30 am non-farm payrolls report- vip this will make or break markets today

העסקה בוטלה באופן ידני

TSLA Wants to go to 200

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Back into short - Stop loss at 201.85

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If Futures break, Then TSLA will break $200 - Current Divergence

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Move Stop-Loss to $195.5 or scalp 1/3 profits here

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possible Bearish Continuation pattern

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Moving stop-loss to 192.5

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added more at $193 with tight stop at $193.5

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next targets $183/$184 then 172

Stop -loss $193
scalping Stop-loss $191.56

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Good news regarding Elon after-hours / TSLA up +1.5%
This could be the catalyst to gap this up Monday past $200

TSLA is SUPER BULLISH, it may not consolidate until after $210 or $230 -
*** I suggest taking 1/2 profits- a break over $200 will be a wash

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TSLA seems to be unstoppable! currently in Bullish Flag mode in the 15min - measured move to $198 - Break or open above 199 will signal move to $205-$207

I started shorting @ $198 - MY stop-loss will be 195

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*** 1 possible idea for bears... if TSLA moves past $198 and gets quickly rejected @ 200.8 this could be a Quadruple negative divergence on 1hr - that can lead into a 10% pullback --- not advice to trade - just a contrarian point of view & technical indicator analysis

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last attempt at shorting under $198

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Be careful of bullish flag forming on 5 min

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8ema & 21 ema are great intraday bounce area's :

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intraday stop-loss $193
Swing Short Stop-loss $196.25

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back into short- stop-loss @ 198.8

Exhaustion coming in , but strong chance of Liquidity grab past 200 and pull back- intra-day

Be-careful

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moving stop-loss to $197 -

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So many $200 call options in play - Pump & Dump scenario in the works - be careful

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We have not seen the H&S play-out .. bullish chart pattern w/ negative divergence could push TSLA to weekly expected high before a sell-off

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Wallstreet does not want to pay $200 calls...lol ..the day is not over!
Trading ranges: $197-$193 / $193-189 / $189-182

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*BE CAREFUL-*DO NOT FOMO *Exhaustion Rally/Bull Trap Warning - Keep an eye on US500 &US100 - if they make new highs I will trust this move-up, feels like a Pump & Dump Distribution event.

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I don’t believe Wall-street will pay the $200 calls options this week- could be wrong

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Sold $210 Calls March 10 exp

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Went Above $212 - Back in @$214

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TSLA STRONG... be careful - Make or break time again intraday:

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$210 holding Strong - TSLA could go up to tag $215

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Intraday Traders: VWAP Holding

Possible Bullish & Bearish Move in Short Term:

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Come on TSLA.. Break.....

Stop-Loss set at 211.31 and re-shorting around $214 ...

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$205 is Bounce area to $207-$208 .. continuation of capitulation
**break of $209 is Bullish.

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Set-Stop-loss at 209...but I'm pretty sure Wall-Street is not going to pay-out $200 calls tomorrow..lets see price action with break of 205..

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If Bulls Break above $209 & hold to close- I am closing all short positions and selling my calls and puts for a profit

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***Revision- If TSLA closes above $206.82 I'm closing all short positions and will wait to see how price action is tomorrow

*I'm still holding 1/3 of my overall Long Position
Don't be afraid to take profits if you are shorting... 1/3, then 1/3..so on

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Short active - I missed $208 short but caught small short at $206.5 *After-Hours Trading is Dangerous -

העסקה בוטלה באופן ידני

Closed 206.5 pre-market shorts after it could not drop below $200
TSLA is still STRONG above $200 - Bears need to get a Daily Close below $200

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Trend Line Expansion:

Break of $197.5 could seal the deal for Reversal

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Michigan Consumer Sentiment Report Dropping at 10am - *be careful of Big swings - TSLA above $$197.5 can still recover with a positive report. Good Luck to anyone shorting - I am waiting until after 10

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Here are some SUPPLY & DEMAND zones to assist with Intraday - It's Looking Like TSLA is tying to reclaim $200 - Markets will probably wait until CPI Data before Making Big Moves either way Good Luck today everyone

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Revised S&D + Median Trading ZONE
Bulls- you need to get price above $200 and fill the morning gap
Bears- Keep price under $200 -especially under $197.5

I'm out until 2- Good trading to everyone

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I had to Refine areas:

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TSLA is finding support at the 0.618 retracement from the break of previous resistance. Bears need to stop TSLA from getting past 0.236 extension ($198) or we can see the move to $200 and continue Bullish momentum

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will TSLA play out H&S on 1hr or Double Top on 4hr? - Bearish Divergences everywhere. * Look for $207 Gap-fill this may play into Double-Top with higher high before dropping. Daily Close above $218 invalidates Correction

*Max pain on Options is $170

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Break-out Bull Flag on 15 min puts move up to $211 ... currently double top is also palying out on 15 min which plays into 1hr. H&S Pattern ... regardless Be-careful going long here ...Intraday Trading is best until we see failure or continuation in markets. CPI report was bad today, PPI could be the nail in the coffin

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BULLS are showing Strength. Short positions Be careful past $215 Is everyone feeling the FOMO yet? LOL ... Is Wallstreet Finally going to PAY on $200 call options this week? ... Sure..they like to loose money?

Shorts look for Lower high on Daily ($211 is a good risk to reward shorting Area)
Longs look for Break of $214.50 - advancing to $223 - trouble @$217-$219 Big Supply @$223

Good Luck

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Bulls are trying to gap open above $214 *** There is something Sketchy about this rally yesterday... Major Options Manipulation is in play.. be careful of "Pump & Dump" today. $221.26 is a target Fib area ...I still think this is a bull trap, but could be completely wrong and this could hit $250 or $260 before Big pullback -

*Vix at Break-out support
DXY trying to break-out
10y&2y- still going up
CPI HOT
Retail sales Hot

*2 market narratives - The Squeeze is on/Manipulation is Strong/ Traps on both ends are being set -
You might want to wait for first 15minutes of trading before choosing a side.
Good Luck all

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something is getting ready to Break:

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BULLs: IF NDX & SPY fill gaps, we could see continuation of rally
Bears: You want the gap and sell off with VIX spiking back above 20

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Battle Lines are Drawn:

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Bulls you want to see a strong bounce between 206-207

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another indecision candle on 30min * notice trading range
median is $210 - close above that on 30min is bullish - see correlation on 15min

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30 min - another indecision candle - close above $210 on 30 min is bullish (piercing Candlestick)

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shorts good at $212 with stop-loss at $214.5
Longs $207 stop-loss at $204

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Shorts - move stop-loss to $212 or $211.79

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intraday shorts can reset here @ 212 or 213.5 *follow price action $214.5 tight stop-loss

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Bulls - SPX & NDX are recovering *need a break through $214 with strong bounce retest for continuation.
keep an eye on Vix - currently at support

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Bears have to push TSLA under $208 - Continuation Diamond Pattern is setting up

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Bears need to hold or... C&H Pattern in play too:

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Revised Distribution - TSLA is beginning or completing final Phase of distribution, we could see one more UTAD to 0.382 Fib from all time Highs ($221) , but option wall may prevent this.

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This Kangaroo market is targeting options & shaking out retail swing positions- I am currently staying away from buying options lasting longer than the day. This market is great for day trading or staying with your mid-term bias, intraday swing trading is being shaken out on both ends to scare retail from their positions.

TSLA looks to be maintaining a breakout to the downside on this bearish wedge/continuation diamond pattern.

Close below $195 maintains bearish theme for me - stronger case is a close below $191

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Bulls - you need a strong bounce off the green trendline - do not let TSLA make a lower low on the 1hr.

Bullish bias- $192-$195 are dip buying areas - Close below $191 on Daily confirms Bearish Bias

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Bulls Prevented TSLA from Closing Below MY $195 Bear signal - Gap up above $200 was inportant for a bullish continuation ($197-$198 was strong resistance) If TSLA can close above $205 today with strong volume and above $198 on the monthly, then I think TSLA is highly likely make a new higher high to begin final phase of distribution...although**** this is Consolidation and could be "Re-Accumulation" MY small frame signals are Bearish but TSLa may explode if they show a new moderately priced vehicle on March 1st (Investor Day)

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intraday - $205 1st resistance, $209 second resistance ... I still believe this is Distribution but am open to bullish continuation - Watch Price action and how TSLA reactes to MAjor S&R along with Weekly Expected Zones

*OPtions Max Pain is $198 - we could also see a "Buy the Rumor, Sell- the news set-up for March1"

Good Luck to all

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Bulls -I would like to see a retest of $205 to confirm support then continuation through to $221 - & Move to 200 MA *currently Double Bottom Break-out pattern on 15min -target move is $220

Bears - Important to push price below $198 before Wednesday

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This will be my Day updating this Thread - I will begin a new Thread before MARCH 1st - Last info I would like to share:

I will be keeping an eye on Large Time Frame Divergence to confirm my Distribution thesis...if* TSLA makes a new High , I had expected the new high last week, but this was not the case. I am still holding on 1/3 of my position (sold at $198 & $210) I plan on seeing how TSLA will react to Expected Moves & 200 MA .. I believe Bulls want to push to $221 - I will sell calls there *not recommended advice, this is how I trade. I will continue to day trade on both sides.
*today TSLa needs to confirm $205 as new support before getting through $208-$209 then to $216 and finally the $220 area.
Good Luck All

I do believe there is a good Bullish Case that Nathan Makes:

TSLA: Bullish Reaction Inside a Trap Zone.

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Comment:
Weekly Options Info & important Dates:
*MARCH 1st: Investor's DAY -****VIP "Buy the Rumor -Sell the News" or Sell the Rumor Buy the News" ... watch Price action & Volume Leading up to Wednesday

Economic Calendar is lighter beginning this week - Next weeks Job Data is VIP

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taking a short position here - good risk to reward set-up intraday

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$208.7 - Stop-loss 210.02 ***Warning -TSLA is Strong the Risk is $1.52 Reward is over $8
This is not not advise to trade

*$210.8-$214 is a better supply zone

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Break below $208 confirms short-term bear / Break of $209.68 is goal for bulls right now

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I'm also putting on a long position here : 5to 1 reward to risk

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Stop-loss on short - moved to $208.6 in case power hour bulls show up ( small profit
Long is active

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stop-loss on Long moved to 207.73 - small profit if TSLA does go BEARISH... BULLs should (need to) be stepping in now to push to new highs on the 1 hr

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stop-loss on short moved to $208.5 =$0.25 profit if TSLA goes bullish (currently $1 in the money)

Long stop-loss triggered - I'm back in long @ 207.50 stop-loss @ 207

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TSLA Short- $2 in the Money - moving stop-loss to $207.6

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העסקה בוטלה באופן ידני

New Charting for Day Trading:

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Follow Link above if you are interested - I will be updating intraday

Black_Sheep1

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