UGAZ - Sleeping with the enemy
מעודכן
It looks to me we had started the bottoming process in UGAZ.
Price broke below 13$ with no follow through and today we broke below 12.16$ and started to recover .
The weekly chart of NatGAs is close to print an inverted hammer which often signs the end of the downtrend.
The weekly volume of UGAZ is record high:
And what is more interesting is the COT number of NatGas.
Last week's numbers:
The open interest is 1.310.300 .
It's quite high but I have seen higher numbers than this. There were 1.600-1.700.000 in bullish periods.
The large speculators are heavily short with 191.423 contracts. (190k long, 381k short) The commercial net long position is 160.735 which is extremely bullish, and what is more interesting is the long contract number.
The long contract number is: 642337. There was only 2 time when the long contract number was higher than this in the last 10 years:
2019.05.14. : 654.311, but this time the short contract number was quite high 609.089 so the net long commercial position was only 45.222.
2018.09.18 : 660.776, and this time the short contract number was 605.712 so the net long was only 55.064.
Look what started in 2018 september:
Natty almost doubled...
This time we have a nearly all time high in commercial long contract number and as commercials already covered many shorts (we have only 481.600 short - remember last septemeber this number was 605.712) we have a 160.735 net long commercial long contract...
Price broke below 13$ with no follow through and today we broke below 12.16$ and started to recover .
The weekly chart of NatGAs is close to print an inverted hammer which often signs the end of the downtrend.
The weekly volume of UGAZ is record high:
And what is more interesting is the COT number of NatGas.
Last week's numbers:
The open interest is 1.310.300 .
It's quite high but I have seen higher numbers than this. There were 1.600-1.700.000 in bullish periods.
The large speculators are heavily short with 191.423 contracts. (190k long, 381k short) The commercial net long position is 160.735 which is extremely bullish, and what is more interesting is the long contract number.
The long contract number is: 642337. There was only 2 time when the long contract number was higher than this in the last 10 years:
2019.05.14. : 654.311, but this time the short contract number was quite high 609.089 so the net long commercial position was only 45.222.
2018.09.18 : 660.776, and this time the short contract number was 605.712 so the net long was only 55.064.
Look what started in 2018 september:
Natty almost doubled...
This time we have a nearly all time high in commercial long contract number and as commercials already covered many shorts (we have only 481.600 short - remember last septemeber this number was 605.712) we have a 160.735 net long commercial long contract...
הערה
COT update( Friday data )Open interest 1.342.656 (+32.000)
Large specs long: +23.776
Large specs short: +32.138
Large specs shorts increased by 8362 contracts
הערה
Commercials:Net long contracts increased by 5914 from 160.735 to 166.649. The blees rating is 100 what is very bullish. I have seen blees at 100 for weeks with price not moving or dropping slowly.
But.........!!!!
Long contracts: 668.966.
THIS IS ALL TIME HIGH. The commercials in the past never ever had 668.966 long contracts. And the blees rating is at bullish territory.
הערה
I’m sure the commercials know something what we don’t. If they are long with that amount of contract number I want to be with them.
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