UK oil 2017:week 1
Generally I believe we have overcome a strong resistance point confirmed by the black trend line with enough volume, also seen on the On balance volume indicator.
According the M. Pring this should mean that are likely to reach a new high. I would have my marbles on reaching 60 as we know psychologically people love to consolidate around round numbers.
On the other side though; we have already reached a couple of days an increase and though we did not reach 9 consecutive increases (higher than the close 4 bars ago, see T. DEMARK) if we count after the last number 5 we would reach around number 9. And this is taking us to the top of the new trend lind (purple line).
Opec is set to cut production with 1.2 mb/d, but we know it will be slow before this cut will be implemented and then even to be seen in the figures. It is even IEA that agrees that a rebalancing of supply and demand is only exprected around H1 2017. And I am not sure Russia will really play ball.
Usually the stock piles tend to increase after the year turn (see article). If the cuts are not honored and the people start to notice this than we could be set for a new much sharper decline.
I don't believe that there is any big news to come next week. I do hope that some ministers will announce that they started reducing their oil production but I have no major expectations.
In short: I think we can expect a small correction either revisiting the previous black trend trend line (a very often observed behaviour) and then a further increase in the oil price.
My target for next week will be 60 unless we break down below the black trend line at that stage I will retake a long position around the blue bottom trend line.
gluck auf
According the M. Pring this should mean that are likely to reach a new high. I would have my marbles on reaching 60 as we know psychologically people love to consolidate around round numbers.
On the other side though; we have already reached a couple of days an increase and though we did not reach 9 consecutive increases (higher than the close 4 bars ago, see T. DEMARK) if we count after the last number 5 we would reach around number 9. And this is taking us to the top of the new trend lind (purple line).
Opec is set to cut production with 1.2 mb/d, but we know it will be slow before this cut will be implemented and then even to be seen in the figures. It is even IEA that agrees that a rebalancing of supply and demand is only exprected around H1 2017. And I am not sure Russia will really play ball.
Usually the stock piles tend to increase after the year turn (see article). If the cuts are not honored and the people start to notice this than we could be set for a new much sharper decline.
I don't believe that there is any big news to come next week. I do hope that some ministers will announce that they started reducing their oil production but I have no major expectations.
In short: I think we can expect a small correction either revisiting the previous black trend trend line (a very often observed behaviour) and then a further increase in the oil price.
My target for next week will be 60 unless we break down below the black trend line at that stage I will retake a long position around the blue bottom trend line.
gluck auf
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