Macro - Risk is Very High
מעודכן
Idea for Macro:
- Credit Cycle turned down from top of Risk Range.
- Global Credit Impulse negative, US Systemic Liquidity Flows turning down, Fed Balance Sheet 5yr avg. at top of risk range.
- Demand-push Inflation at top of risk range, in 40 year downtrend.
- Implied Volatility vs. Realized Volatility reaching a critical level.
- PC ratio reaching low levels (signals investor complacency).
- SKEW at an ATH. Perceived Tail Risk is at an ATH.
Speculate a correction in equities this Summer, then a large correction EOY-Q1 2022.
GLHF
- DPT
- Credit Cycle turned down from top of Risk Range.
- Global Credit Impulse negative, US Systemic Liquidity Flows turning down, Fed Balance Sheet 5yr avg. at top of risk range.
- Demand-push Inflation at top of risk range, in 40 year downtrend.
- Implied Volatility vs. Realized Volatility reaching a critical level.
- PC ratio reaching low levels (signals investor complacency).
- SKEW at an ATH. Perceived Tail Risk is at an ATH.
Speculate a correction in equities this Summer, then a large correction EOY-Q1 2022.
GLHF
- DPT
עסקה פעילה
Reminder:Should the deep correction across asset classes occur, Bonds are typically the first to recover, then Gold, then Stocks.
עסקה פעילה
Risk Indicator flashing warning, not sell yet.Risk Model suggests possible Long VOL signal:
- Tech shows possible reversal patterns:
- Low Market breadth in tech rally, bearish divergences.
- Lumber, Gold, Copper, commodities signal reversal.
- Big VIX call flow.
- Yields and DXY suggest sell.
- Only Oil seems to be holding up markets.
עסקה פעילה
Watch for global markets and futures red in the pre-market for a red flag.עסקה פעילה
Financial sector gives a signal: 
עסקה פעילה
NQ confirms the clean short entry: Let's see if there is continuation
עסקה פעילה
EM's beginning their interest rate hikes. Global risk appetite decreasing.עסקה פעילה
China Credit Impulse 12M change again dropsעסקה פעילה
This is relevant news: wsj.com/articles/credit-suisse-turns-away-from-softbank-and-its-founder-masayoshi-son-11624021118?mod=e2twCS backed off lending to Softbank. Softbank is basically Cathie's ARK but for QQQ.
Easy money is ending.
עסקה פעילה
Fed Balance Sheet YoY % drops off,Fed raises RRP rates and overnight RRP shoots to nearly
1T,Margin debt at ATH,
Global credit impulse now negative...
The market will continue to rise. How? Where is the money coming from?
The rally up till now had been fueled by easy lending, but the Credit Cycle has turned down. Liquidity flows are decelerating and being pulled out of the system.
Who now will bid up the assets bought at these lofty heights?
עסקה פעילה
RRP skyrocketing. It's simple. Bank Reserves > Credit > Equities. Liquidity outflows lead market movements.עסקה פעילה
SKEW typically frontruns big moves by a month or 2: SKEW rises as a result of big players with inside knowledge of a catalyst coming.
עסקה פעילה
US Credit (Junk + Leverage) rolling over: 
כתב ויתור
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