Market Crash - The Death of the Japanese Yen

10 ביוני

I've been doing some analysis on the Yen this year, because I think it's important. It's essentially my leading candidate for this "black swan" I'm predicting. It doesn't have to be the end of the world, but at some point there will be a catalyst for a new bear market and I think this may be it. There might not be another catalyst for another 5 years and we just keep ripping to new ATH year after year, or maybe there's one in 5 hours. Who knows. I think the Yen is most likely what will start things off, but we'll see. We have potential bank failures, Russia vs. NATO, Israel vs Iran, China vs Taiwan, and many other things that could happen.

Anyway, I'll do more ideas on this, but here's a weekly chart going back to the major top in 1986/1987. In 2014, this downtrend was finally broken, which led to the run up we are still seeing today. It held on a retest in 2020 with a massive volume spike as well. Also remember that in the case of this chart, an upside breakout is bad for the Yen, it's the opposite of what you may think intuitively.

The Yen had not hit 160 since 1990 and once it got there this year, Japan intervened twice to prevent it from going any further. That held it off for all of 2 months, it's already back to where it started. Which means, if treasury yields keep spiking, the Yen will get worse and worse until total collapse, BoJ can't save it forever. Treasury yields must fall or else equities are doomed.