Potential upside visible on USDJPY today
USD/JPY:
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
Since kicking off 2017, USD/JPY has been busy carving out a descending triangle pattern between 118.66/104.62. The month of March concluded by way of a long-legged doji candlestick pattern, ranging between 111.71/101.18, with extremes piercing the outer limits of the aforementioned descending triangle formation.
April was pretty uneventful, ranging between 109.38/106.35. May also remains subdued, ranging between 108.08/105.98.
Areas outside of the noted pattern can be seen at supply from 126.10/122.66 and demand coming in at 96.41/100.81.
Daily timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis -
Since registering a top from 109.38 at the beginning of April, USD/JPY moulded a falling wedge pattern, which had its upper limit breached early last week in strong fashion, boosted by demand at 105.70/106.66. The take-profit target out of the said pattern, traditionally measured by taking the value of the base and adding this to the breakout point (purple), sets an objective of around 109.30.
However, in order to reach the noted take-profit target, the 200-day simple moving average at 108.26 will need to be overthrown.
H4 timeframe:
Recent upside took the USD/JPY to highs of 108.08, invading familiar supply at 108.10/107.79 and crossing paths with trendline resistance (106.92). The US dollar clawed back some strength from here, though is attempting to defend a nearby trendline support (prior resistance – 108.04). A break lower here could see light thrown on demand at 107.21/107.41, which essentially is the decision point to break into the current supply area.
H1 timeframe:
Intraday activity swiftly changed hands at 108, turning lower from the psychological base heading into US hours Tuesday. Demand at 107.67/107.57 (prior supply) made a show and is, as of current price, holding.
Below demand re-opens the risk of a return to trendline support (106.03), trailed closely by the 100-period simple moving average at 107.25.
Structures of Interest:
H1 demand at 107.67/107.57 offers particularly potent confluence. The scope to approach higher levels is clearly evident on the higher timeframes, with intraday activity supported by a H4 trendline support. This could lead to moves higher, perhaps running for the 108 base and 200-day simple moving average, and maybe, with a little pressure, complete the daily falling wedge pattern at 109.30.
Monthly timeframe:
(Technical change on this timeframe is often limited though serves as guidance to potential longer-term moves)
Since kicking off 2017, USD/JPY has been busy carving out a descending triangle pattern between 118.66/104.62. The month of March concluded by way of a long-legged doji candlestick pattern, ranging between 111.71/101.18, with extremes piercing the outer limits of the aforementioned descending triangle formation.
April was pretty uneventful, ranging between 109.38/106.35. May also remains subdued, ranging between 108.08/105.98.
Areas outside of the noted pattern can be seen at supply from 126.10/122.66 and demand coming in at 96.41/100.81.
Daily timeframe:
Partially altered from previous analysis -
Since registering a top from 109.38 at the beginning of April, USD/JPY moulded a falling wedge pattern, which had its upper limit breached early last week in strong fashion, boosted by demand at 105.70/106.66. The take-profit target out of the said pattern, traditionally measured by taking the value of the base and adding this to the breakout point (purple), sets an objective of around 109.30.
However, in order to reach the noted take-profit target, the 200-day simple moving average at 108.26 will need to be overthrown.
H4 timeframe:
Recent upside took the USD/JPY to highs of 108.08, invading familiar supply at 108.10/107.79 and crossing paths with trendline resistance (106.92). The US dollar clawed back some strength from here, though is attempting to defend a nearby trendline support (prior resistance – 108.04). A break lower here could see light thrown on demand at 107.21/107.41, which essentially is the decision point to break into the current supply area.
H1 timeframe:
Intraday activity swiftly changed hands at 108, turning lower from the psychological base heading into US hours Tuesday. Demand at 107.67/107.57 (prior supply) made a show and is, as of current price, holding.
Below demand re-opens the risk of a return to trendline support (106.03), trailed closely by the 100-period simple moving average at 107.25.
Structures of Interest:
H1 demand at 107.67/107.57 offers particularly potent confluence. The scope to approach higher levels is clearly evident on the higher timeframes, with intraday activity supported by a H4 trendline support. This could lead to moves higher, perhaps running for the 108 base and 200-day simple moving average, and maybe, with a little pressure, complete the daily falling wedge pattern at 109.30.
כתב ויתור
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