USDTRY: Offering interesting downside

I'll be monitoring this pair for a short entry soon, if we break the weekly support, and expand the daily range down we might get sufficient reason to get involved on the short side.
The setup is purely technical, I'm not considering Turkish fundamentals but if anyone wants to expand on them, maybe they can shed some light on this setup.
Feel free to leave your comments.
Good luck if taking this trade.

Cheers,

Ivan Labrie.
Time at Mode FX

הערה:

Looking solid, took a 3 ATR entry first, will add once we get further confirmation. Downside is gigantic.

הערה:

In case you haven't, check this chart:

Since I posted it, USDTRY effectively topped. I think it's still in play, with a 55% probability at least.

הערה:

View of the FOMC key support and resistance levels.
If we break down convincingly, huge downside opens up.

עסקה פעילה

העסקה בוטלה באופן ידני:

Closed manually for -0.15%
I'll wait, not safe to short yet.

הערה:

Probably safe to short it again.

הערה:

If you reentered a month ago like I suggested, you'd be in great profit.
Expect a retracement since we hit the first target, but it could just continue marching down.