U.S Macro Supports ZAR Momentum
Despite the South African local election being only 14 days away, speculation of U.S. interest rate cuts over the last two months has supported the rand momentum.
We're approaching a crucial level at the Fibonacci retracement, but a reversal may be unlikely given a widening USDZAR carry trade and a disinflationary U.S. environment, which will support the ZAR's momentum until the end of Q2.
A momentum break of 18.27 will spur price action toward 17.95 and 17.78 if the stars align. However, I'm cautious ahead of the recent shipment of weapons from the U.S. to Israel this week. This will add further tension in the Middle East if Israel aggressively pursues the Rafah Region. However, we may remain range-bound below 18.60 to 18.20 in the present macro environment.
Keep in mind that April and May data will show a level of skewness due to loadshedding suspension ahead of the elections.
We're approaching a crucial level at the Fibonacci retracement, but a reversal may be unlikely given a widening USDZAR carry trade and a disinflationary U.S. environment, which will support the ZAR's momentum until the end of Q2.
A momentum break of 18.27 will spur price action toward 17.95 and 17.78 if the stars align. However, I'm cautious ahead of the recent shipment of weapons from the U.S. to Israel this week. This will add further tension in the Middle East if Israel aggressively pursues the Rafah Region. However, we may remain range-bound below 18.60 to 18.20 in the present macro environment.
Keep in mind that April and May data will show a level of skewness due to loadshedding suspension ahead of the elections.
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