Oil risks balanced, waiting for directionality at 53.50ish

19 בפבר׳ 2017

For 2017, oil has traded in a very defined $2 range b/w 52 and 54. At the moment, risks are pretty balanced, with a slight short-term downside bias. To that end, I'm long a few 56 APR calls. I'm waiting for directionality @ 53.50ish on a test of wedge resistance. I suspect this directionality will ultimately be a false signal and I plan to trade it accordingly, looking to add calls <53. Friday's COT report showed a new net long record for hedgies and I want to continue to buy into that sentiment with an eye through 54 on to new highs > 55. When commodities trade this tight, with risks this balanced, I like to play moderately OTM options, looking to capture an IV premium spike when half the market gets caught offsides. For my risk strategy, doing so unhedged is preferred.