Russia-Ukraine negotiations, next oil market analysis!!
On Friday (February 15), international oil prices fell slightly, mainly affected by the expectation of easing the situation between Russia and Ukraine. The market generally believes that if the peace talks between Russia and Ukraine make substantial progress, the lifting of sanctions on Russia will greatly improve the global energy supply. However, the postponement of the implementation of the US reciprocal tariffs has provided support for oil prices and limited the decline in oil prices. Brent crude oil futures closed at $7,451 per barrel, while WTI crude oil fell to $70.57 per barrel.
This week, Brent crude oil fell slightly by 0.23%, while WTI crude oil fell slightly by 0.69%. Despite the weak performance of oil prices, market sentiment remains relatively complex, greatly affected by the supply and demand pattern and global political dynamics.
Market Dynamics Analysis
Russia-Ukraine Situation: Changes in Supply and Demand Expectations Brought by Peace Talks
One of the most important market news this week was that US President Trump instructed US officials to launch Russia-Ukraine peace talks. Both Russian President Putin and Ukrainian President Zelensky expressed their willingness to reach a peace agreement in separate phone calls with Trump. Market expectations for a possible turnaround in the Russia-Ukraine conflict are rising. If a peace agreement is reached and sanctions on Russia are lifted, the pressure on global energy supply will be significantly eased.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) recently mentioned in its oil market report that if Russia's oil exports can circumvent new sanctions, they may still be able to remain at the current level, which will have an important impact on the global oil market. Nevertheless, the market still needs to pay attention to the further development of the situation between Russia and Ukraine, and there is still great uncertainty in the final realization of the peace agreement.
US trade policy: The postponement of reciprocal tariffs provides support for oil prices
US President Trump recently announced that he plans to postpone the implementation of reciprocal tariffs, and the relevant report is expected to be submitted on April 1. The market responded positively to this, and the decision to postpone tariffs has increased optimism about the outlook for global trade. IG market strategist Ye Junrong pointed out that Trump's tariff policy adjustment has warmed up the market's expectations for the global trade environment, driving a certain rebound in oil prices.
However, it is worth noting that although the postponement of tariffs has brought support to the market, the final direction of this policy is still uncertain, and it may have a greater impact on the trend of global oil prices in the future.
Global demand recovery and supply dynamics: energy market tends to balance
Analysts at JPMorgan Chase pointed out that global oil demand has increased to 103.4 million barrels per day (bpd), an increase of 1.4 million bpd from the same period last year. In particular, the recovery in demand for travel and heating fuels has further increased the actual demand for oil. At the same time, the number of oil drilling rigs in the United States has increased for three consecutive weeks. The latest report from Baker Hughes shows that the number of active drilling rigs in the United States increased by 2 this week to 588. The increase in the number of drilling rigs usually indicates a recovery in future production and indicates that the US oil industry is gradually recovering.
However, despite the recovery in demand, supply concerns remain. The economic pressure imposed by the Trump administration on Iran may also limit the growth of crude oil supply in the short term.
Technical aspects and market sentiment: the pattern of oil price shocks
From a technical perspective, Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil have been operating in a shock range recently, and there is great uncertainty in the short-term trend. Although the market is optimistic about the recovery in demand, potential disturbances in global supply and geopolitical risks still put pressure on oil prices. In terms of technical indicators, the prices of Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil have not broken through the upper limit of the recent fluctuation range, indicating that market sentiment is still in a wait-and-see state.
Outlook for next week
Looking ahead to next week, the crude oil market will still face the test of multiple uncertainties. First, whether the Russian-Ukrainian peace talks can make substantial progress will be an important factor affecting oil prices. If the situation between Russia and Ukraine eases and sanctions on Russia are lifted, global energy supply may ease and oil prices may be under great pressure.
Second, whether the Trump administration's reciprocal tariff policy will continue to be postponed and its impact on global trade may continue to affect market sentiment. The market's expectations for the adjustment of the US trade policy are still relatively optimistic, which may provide some support for oil prices in the short term.
In addition, the recovery trend of global oil demand is expected to continue, especially as the global economy gradually recovers, the increase in fuel and heating demand may further drive up oil prices. However, uncertainties on the global supply side, especially supply problems in Iran and Russia, will have a lasting impact on oil price trends.
The increase in the number of drilling rigs in the United States indicates that the recovery of US oil production may have an impact on market supply in the coming months. If the US energy production capacity continues to expand, oil prices may face downward pressure.
USOIL
This week, Brent crude oil fell slightly by 0.23%, while WTI crude oil fell slightly by 0.69%. Despite the weak performance of oil prices, market sentiment remains relatively complex, greatly affected by the supply and demand pattern and global political dynamics.
Market Dynamics Analysis
Russia-Ukraine Situation: Changes in Supply and Demand Expectations Brought by Peace Talks
One of the most important market news this week was that US President Trump instructed US officials to launch Russia-Ukraine peace talks. Both Russian President Putin and Ukrainian President Zelensky expressed their willingness to reach a peace agreement in separate phone calls with Trump. Market expectations for a possible turnaround in the Russia-Ukraine conflict are rising. If a peace agreement is reached and sanctions on Russia are lifted, the pressure on global energy supply will be significantly eased.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) recently mentioned in its oil market report that if Russia's oil exports can circumvent new sanctions, they may still be able to remain at the current level, which will have an important impact on the global oil market. Nevertheless, the market still needs to pay attention to the further development of the situation between Russia and Ukraine, and there is still great uncertainty in the final realization of the peace agreement.
US trade policy: The postponement of reciprocal tariffs provides support for oil prices
US President Trump recently announced that he plans to postpone the implementation of reciprocal tariffs, and the relevant report is expected to be submitted on April 1. The market responded positively to this, and the decision to postpone tariffs has increased optimism about the outlook for global trade. IG market strategist Ye Junrong pointed out that Trump's tariff policy adjustment has warmed up the market's expectations for the global trade environment, driving a certain rebound in oil prices.
However, it is worth noting that although the postponement of tariffs has brought support to the market, the final direction of this policy is still uncertain, and it may have a greater impact on the trend of global oil prices in the future.
Global demand recovery and supply dynamics: energy market tends to balance
Analysts at JPMorgan Chase pointed out that global oil demand has increased to 103.4 million barrels per day (bpd), an increase of 1.4 million bpd from the same period last year. In particular, the recovery in demand for travel and heating fuels has further increased the actual demand for oil. At the same time, the number of oil drilling rigs in the United States has increased for three consecutive weeks. The latest report from Baker Hughes shows that the number of active drilling rigs in the United States increased by 2 this week to 588. The increase in the number of drilling rigs usually indicates a recovery in future production and indicates that the US oil industry is gradually recovering.
However, despite the recovery in demand, supply concerns remain. The economic pressure imposed by the Trump administration on Iran may also limit the growth of crude oil supply in the short term.
Technical aspects and market sentiment: the pattern of oil price shocks
From a technical perspective, Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil have been operating in a shock range recently, and there is great uncertainty in the short-term trend. Although the market is optimistic about the recovery in demand, potential disturbances in global supply and geopolitical risks still put pressure on oil prices. In terms of technical indicators, the prices of Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil have not broken through the upper limit of the recent fluctuation range, indicating that market sentiment is still in a wait-and-see state.
Outlook for next week
Looking ahead to next week, the crude oil market will still face the test of multiple uncertainties. First, whether the Russian-Ukrainian peace talks can make substantial progress will be an important factor affecting oil prices. If the situation between Russia and Ukraine eases and sanctions on Russia are lifted, global energy supply may ease and oil prices may be under great pressure.
Second, whether the Trump administration's reciprocal tariff policy will continue to be postponed and its impact on global trade may continue to affect market sentiment. The market's expectations for the adjustment of the US trade policy are still relatively optimistic, which may provide some support for oil prices in the short term.
In addition, the recovery trend of global oil demand is expected to continue, especially as the global economy gradually recovers, the increase in fuel and heating demand may further drive up oil prices. However, uncertainties on the global supply side, especially supply problems in Iran and Russia, will have a lasting impact on oil price trends.
The increase in the number of drilling rigs in the United States indicates that the recovery of US oil production may have an impact on market supply in the coming months. If the US energy production capacity continues to expand, oil prices may face downward pressure.
USOIL הערה
The previous crude oil trend analysis has predicted an increase, and this trading plan is very
I have made good profits for three consecutive months, and the members I follow have made profits of more than 500%. If you are interested in my trading plan, you are welcome to join the channel for free and contact https://me.https://t.mhttps://t.me/FcCygjylf
כתב ויתור
המידע והפרסומים אינם אמורים להיות, ואינם מהווים, עצות פיננסיות, השקעות, מסחר או סוגים אחרים של עצות או המלצות שסופקו או מאושרים על ידי TradingView. קרא עוד בתנאים וההגבלות.
I have made good profits for three consecutive months, and the members I follow have made profits of more than 500%. If you are interested in my trading plan, you are welcome to join the channel for free and contact https://me.https://t.mhttps://t.me/FcCygjylf
כתב ויתור
המידע והפרסומים אינם אמורים להיות, ואינם מהווים, עצות פיננסיות, השקעות, מסחר או סוגים אחרים של עצות או המלצות שסופקו או מאושרים על ידי TradingView. קרא עוד בתנאים וההגבלות.