Volatility is Resting: Don't Let Your Guard Down Yet...
Volatility has certainly relaxed somewhat this week and has allowed the VIX to undergo a much needed corrective wave downwards, however, can we really say all is clear and volatility is over?
History and trend analysis tells us that sometime in the weeks ahead - likely anywhere from near Easter or after Easter, that volatility should return sharply and coincide with another wave down in the equity market before some sort of zig-zag correction.
I put a high probability that the VIX will at-least come to test its highs of around 85, and likely make new highs sometime in May. Of course, this will tie into another wave of sharp selling.
Based on other key analysis, oil is on the verge of a short squeeze to the 35-38 range before its wave down to 10.00. It is likely that the move down in oil after its corrective wave up will coincide with the wave down in equities and bring back volatility.
After all, the market is expecting normalcy for COVID by the end of April. In reality, this is far from an accurate time-line.
- zSplit
History and trend analysis tells us that sometime in the weeks ahead - likely anywhere from near Easter or after Easter, that volatility should return sharply and coincide with another wave down in the equity market before some sort of zig-zag correction.
I put a high probability that the VIX will at-least come to test its highs of around 85, and likely make new highs sometime in May. Of course, this will tie into another wave of sharp selling.
Based on other key analysis, oil is on the verge of a short squeeze to the 35-38 range before its wave down to 10.00. It is likely that the move down in oil after its corrective wave up will coincide with the wave down in equities and bring back volatility.
After all, the market is expecting normalcy for COVID by the end of April. In reality, this is far from an accurate time-line.
- zSplit
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