All hail the Tribal Chief - Long WWE

1 במרץ 2021

In the name of The Big Dog, The Tribal Chief, The Head of the Table, I have longed the World Wrestling Federation stock with an average entry of $51.90. This despite complaining about WWE's programming damn near daily and being team AEW.

Will double my position if they make Buddy Murphy Intercontinental Champion and invest my entire portfolio if Buddy Murphy wins the World Heavyweight Championship.

Target $60 minimum. Stops -
NBC Peacock deal goes south
Roman Reigns loses to Edge at WrestleMania
AEW signs John Cena

1 במרץ 2021

הערה

Good Fundamentals:
Corporate jet was in Saudi Arabia recently. Blood Money in the Sand paydays could be back. The original blood money deal led to a big pump.
WrestleMania is in Florida, where Covid does not exist, and they will probably have 30k+ in attendance.
Much like my CCL play (up 30%, no big deal), I believe there will be pent up demand and early events will have large crowds. I'd do anything to go to a live wrestling show right now.
Same structure as the aforementioned Carnival Cruise lines (up 30% from my entry 2 weeks ago, again no big deal). Gap downs from prepandemic highs, long accumulation, breakout of box, retest. It did go a bit deeper in the box on the retest than I would have liked.
Apparently they are cutting back on money losing house shows and only booking arenas for TV tapings, which is good.
They have stopped signing every wrestler under the sun to big money deals.
Ratings dropped a ton over the last couple of years, but have leveled off, and honestly watching wrestling without a crowd kinda sucks. Maybe they can actually bump ratings with hot crowds back.

Bad fundamentals.
AEW is a far superior product. Don't bother arguing with this, it is not an argument.
The Saudi shows and twice annual European Tours are big money events, and it is unclear when international travel will resume, even with vaccine progress.
Not to be morbid, but Vince McMahon has run the company for almost 40 years, and it 75 years old, barely sleeps, and is just a weird dude.
Buddy Murphy is off television again.


I hope we are above $65, and ideally $74, by SummerSlam. We need that Saudi show announcement ASAP.

9 במרץ 2021

הערה

WWE is hitting 70 American Dollars, and there is nothing you, I, or the king Tony Kahn can do about it.

All hail The Tribal Chief.

16 במרץ 2021

עסקה פעילה

Some fundamental data since I, an adult, still enjoy professional wrestling (note: I am an AEW guy and don't really watch WWE, though I do attend WrestleMania in non-panemic years and watch the PPVs, and of course I have had the Network since day 1)

My initial estimated Mania crowd sizes were 25k a day. However, Dave Meltzer is reporting WWE might sell 45k(!) tickets each day, which would total 90k, which would be the largest Mania paid attendance in history (non marks- The Hogan-Andre attendance was not actually 93k).

Again, SEVENTY AMERICAN DOLLARS PER SHARE OF WWE STOCK IN 2021. LOCK IT IN

18 במרץ 2021

עסקה פעילה

Trade update: If this has another down day I'm taking my gains and calling it a day, for several reasons.

First, we are at the same place it reversed the last breakout after filling the gap. That is the technical analysis.

Now, the fundamentals.

First one: CBSSports WWE/Golf editor, and Getting Over Podcast host, Adam Silverstein, had some tweets that made me nervous. First he mentioned Mania tickets would only be 25k a day, which turned out to be true. Meltzer said there was a rumor for 45k, which I believed and helped raise my $60 target to $70. Here is why I think this drop is a big deal.

Canelo and UFC are both doing no restriction events within a month of Mania. DeSantis doesn't care how many people die if he can run for President in 2024, so he would probably have let the WWE put 60k in there if they could.

I feel like they lowered ticket sales to 25k because they did not think they could sell more than that. I got to WrestleMania with between 8 and 10 guys every year, none of us are going this year. If you go back to my March 1st entry, I said I thought tickets would fly off the shelf due to pent up demand. I might be wrong. Ratings have dropped, and I am thinking maybe people were like "You know what, I don't need the WWE in my life anymore." The last decade has shown, with a very small exception, when the WWE loses a fan, that fan does not come back.

Today, was the WrestleMania presale. We buy tickets during this every year. It takes two of us an hour, at launch, to secure 8. I forgot it was at 10am, logged on at 3pm, and there were tickets everywhere. Not good for WWE.

Second: Adam Silverstein also tweeted the Network rollout on Peacock is off to a bad start. I turned it on to check. He ain't lying. It sucks. First of all, it doesn't even have WCW/NWA stuff yet, not even Starrcade, so instant L. The search is useless. If it crashes during Fastlane I might hit the eject button on this trade even if Friday goes well.

Trade plan:
If tomorrow is a down day I may eject, unless the entire market is down and WWE performs better than average. If Fastlane crashes Peacock I might hit eject Monday. Soft stop will be at $55 tomorrow.

If I bail I may long again at $52 if these fundamental concerns go away.

20 במרץ 2021

הערה

Good recovery today. I checked the available WrestleMania tickets just now and sales look pretty good. It might sell out. Holding my long over the weekend.

Almost want to sell on principle since they brought in Hogan to cohost to Mania again. Enough with this racist who never even apologized for what he said.

10 ביולי 2021

עסקה פעילה

I would be out of this if I would have had standing sell orders on the wick where it hit $68. I gave a lot back, I'm still in it, up 8%.

This may get cut soon.