Analysis of gold news: Spot gold rebounded slightly during the U.S. trading session on Thursday (January 16). The price of gold fell nearly $30 from the one-month high hit last Friday on Monday. The lowest intraday price hit $2,656.73/ounce and closed at $2,662.83/ounce. Last week's strong employment report consolidated the Fed's expectations of cautious interest rate cuts this year. The U.S. dollar rose sharply to the highest level in more than two years, and the U.S. Treasury yield hit a high of more than eight months, which blocked the gold price at the 2,700 mark. In addition, the breakthrough in the Gaza ceasefire mediation also suppressed the safe-haven demand for gold. The U.S. employment report released last Friday highlighted the strong momentum of the economy and made the outlook of the Federal Reserve unclear. The U.S. dollar index rose to 110.17, the highest since November 2022, during trading on Monday, but gave up its gains in late trading, and reported a weekly report of 109.59, a drop of about 0.05%. Trump will be sworn in as the President of the United States next week. The tariffs and protectionist policies he proposed are expected to stimulate inflation and may trigger a trade war, thereby increasing the appeal of gold as a safe-haven asset. People familiar with the matter revealed that the economic team of US President-elect Donald Trump is discussing slowly raising tariffs month by month to increase bargaining chips in a step-by-step manner while trying to avoid a surge in inflation. This has slightly cooled the market's concerns. The US December PPI data will be released this trading day, and several Federal Reserve officials will give speeches. Investors need to pay attention to them. In addition, investors need to pay attention to news related to the geopolitical situation.
Gold technical analysis: Gold's two consecutive positive daily lines have recovered the previous decline. It has re-touched the 2700 integer mark and closed at a high level at the end of the trading day. The probability of breaking today has increased. At present, the daily line structure has driven the moving average indicator to turn upward to form support, and the daily line structure has begun to change to a bullish upward trend. The daily line closed positive, and there is still a high point today. The daily support is near 2678, if it reaches it, you can go long. The Asian early trading session pulled back to 2692 and opened higher, proving that the market is still very strong. The current price of gold is close to resistance at 2719, so we will not chase it. If there is a signal above 2719, we can consider going short first. There is nothing to analyze today. Gold is bullish but cannot chase the rise.
In the bullish rising channel of the 4-hour chart of gold, the step-up rising channel is formed based on the low point of 2655. If the low point is not broken, the bulls will not change, although the process is slow. But the overall situation remains in a fluctuating rise. The 1-hour moving average of gold has entered the golden cross upward pattern again. The gold price has moved sideways and upward in the Asian session at 2685. The basic idea and direction are the same as those on Wednesday. As long as the decline stabilizes, we can continue to look at the bullish market. The market will break through 2720 points and form a new high. On the whole, our senior professional gold analyst team recommends that the short-term operation of gold today is mainly long on the pullback, supplemented by short on the rebound. The short-term focus on the upper side is 2726-2731 resistance, and the short-term focus on the lower side is 2700-2695 support.