ONE THOUSAND DOLLAR REVERSAL, 12-H BAR, WALK-THROUGH

11 בפבר׳

This is the only route I can think of to make everything make sense. Why? The yellow box in chart above is the runaway since 2840s which is incredibly difficult to make fit IN ANY SCENARIO. First, this last 100 points from 2840s to 2940s means the run is not over by any means and at a minimum, should clear 3135 by early June. Let me be clear that if price rejects this route, it can only be HIGHER and much much higher starting with 3333 as a target (YELLOW ROUTE). That said, if price moves to 2735 in the next 3 weeks, this is my call for the rest of the year, and that is:

1) after 2735, move for new all time high at 3135, by 5/20 if early, 6/10 if late
2) correct HARD TO 2415 in July
3) followed by 2790 which has the longest window
4) followed by 2085

In the previous post, I have already explained that we are at the limits of this type of move. For this to even work, 2735 needs to get hit by end of February, which in itself is not even obvious. But this is the ONLY ROUTE in my opinion that makes gold prices worth covering from here on out that also does not disagree fundamentally on long term targets. WILL ADD WITH TIME.

11 בפבר׳

הערה

2/11, 6:40 PM ET, the difference of this route vs my previous notes is ...
1) the response at the second 2790 top
2) which would make it a super big triple top
3) this implies A TAG OF 2100 OR LESS
4) but all of this is dependent on the first move
5) and that is to 2735

11 בפבר׳

הערה

6) so:

11 בפבר׳

הערה

7) so that's what need to happen before we can take this seriously
8) if this plays out, I will add notes next before March 7th's NFP release

11 בפבר׳

הערה

9) if it does not, then that's a wrap until I see something worth writing about

12 בפבר׳

הערה

10) be aware that my description of yellow route to 3333..
11) I actually described before bulls broke through 2840s
12) and would mean sky high targets after July
13) this is the obvious route that I disagree fundamentally with
14) bc that means 4800-5100 by May of 2026

12 בפבר׳

הערה

15) but one more high would bring the floor waayyy up... and kill this route immediately

12 בפבר׳

הערה

02/12/25 - 11:28 AM ET, New York time, so here's where I am at:
a) this "one thousand dollar retrace" is GOING TO HAPPEN IN EITHER SCENARIO
b) meaning even if price takes yellow route to its hard ceiling
c) which I think is 3395 in the most bullish scenario
d) we are going to get a giant retrace anyway, BUT...
e) instead of 1050 retrace like chart at top
f) it could floor at 2450, so 950 drop instead of 1050 drop
g) but its range is 950 to 1300
h) that is to say that yellow drop can reverse less than 1000 but also more as much as 1300
i) so now that we know that this picture will get much clearer

12 בפבר׳

הערה

j) let's take this all the way out for the unknowable
k) technically, this rally could be completed already at 2943
l) in which case the range of the retrace is 850 to 1100, off the top of my head
m) so then:
1) max high of yellow route is 3395 with floor at 2450 to 2100 max pain
2) mid range (this post) is calling for one more high at 3135, with 2085 floor
3) most bearish case is top in at 2943 with floor at 2100 to 1845 max pain
n) that is the entire range of outcomes

12 בפבר׳

הערה

o) with that known, we move forward to answer the following questions
1) is this 2943 the only top (like bearish case)?
2) if it is not, then what is the top in the range of 3135 to 3395
3) and where/when will this 1000 retrace end?

12 בפבר׳

הערה

12 בפבר׳

הערה

f) so that means to make EVERYTHING FIT, including the move to 3333
g) meaning to make short, medium and long term all fit together
h) it should be this:

12 בפבר׳

הערה

12 בפבר׳

הערה

HERE IS NEXT POST FOR DAILY COVERAGE: