השכלה

מעודכן

Gold - Multi Year view -why is this week important(4th Feb 2019)

Disclaimer - I am new to technical studies and learning everyday. Please share your views, it will help me to learn better.

After reviewing GOLD multi year chart I see the following:

1. Oct 2008 @ approx $682 and high in Aug 2011 @ approx $1919

2. Retracements upward since Aug 2018 at exactly .618 level

3. Now broke .50 level last week at approx $1302 level

4. This week, it should pullback upto .50 level. From here if it breaks above ( probably inside bar breakout) then we should target next Fib level. Hurdle before it will be a trend-line coming down supported by another trend-line upward providing ample trading opportunities.

Share your views and help me learn further.

Thanks

הערה

Ideall, as per Point 4 above, it should break down

הערה

As anticipated, Inside bar breakdown happened. Now its approaching:
1. .786 fib level from high of 1279.
2. this level is also strong structure for multi month low.

So if it break below this, the bull run should be over.

הערה

This structure also aligns to multi month upward trend line.. so below this should be a beginning of down trend.

הערה

Well within the range of Long set-up. Closure below this level is not good.
Will wait for a buy setup. If not positive signals pops up, then it will be a sell eventually.

הערה

Ar 1hr chart..possible setup...

עסקה פעילה

Long

עסקה פעילה

Long Initiated

הערה

possibly a double bottom

will close if it goes below 1303

הערה

As anticipated, double bottom made. Now looking to break neckline.. Let's see if it succeeds

הערה

if it fails to stay above .786 ( 1312.99), I will close my long position

עסקה סגורה: הגיע לסטופ

Trade Closed

הערה

For last 7 days, it has failed to break .236 level.It looks like it will go upto .786 level until 1297- interesting times.

הערה

Or possibly upto .382 which co-incides with trendline and channel.

הערה

Double Top created, looking to break neckline... Bears are coming

הערה

These are the most problematic candles. It kills

However, it looks like a bearish bias now it has a Bearish engulfing now on a Daily chart

הערה

Final Conclusion :- after watching this for a week now, the final conclusion is wait and watch.

A break below 1304(.786 level) of current spike which co-insides with 0.5 for the long term view is key. A move above this level is bull trend and below is bearish.

Buy above 1315/16 or sell below 1304

Waiting for a Inside bar at 4H candle to a decision.

עסקה פעילה

Long initiated - SL 1302

עסקה סגורה: היעד הושג

Closing this trade for now. While I am bullish until 135x levels, will look for new entry at lower sides as the risk increases. This is also in view with EUR/USD.

הערה

Previous trade close idea was good. Looking to buy between 1303 and 1310.
Exact price can only be determined when we move close to that range.
In such a scenario, at the current state, a PUT should be purchased for 1320 almost ATM.

הערה

since the last update, came down as expected.
It has broken down 786 level since multi-year high, so will have to be careful before opening a long. At this stage, Inside bar breakdown on daily candle. Ideally, it should be a short position furhter. But could be risky as its near support of 1317.. will wait for Long entry

הערה

Good Cypher Pattern in Play. will look to buy at Point D

הערה

Finally, it seems that ABCD pattern is complete.

Inside bar formation. We should look to buy the break of 1300

הערה

Following this idea stream, ideally, we should be on the way above 1300, 1303 and then 1308.
I see cypher pattern is complete as predicted weeks ago. However 1303 is 0.5 of the weekly chart( long term view), so it's critical to be broken before it goes further.

In such a situation, there should be a option strategy we should look for as its a tight R/R ratio. And since I do not know how to trade Options properly, I will wait for it to cross 1303 before going long or will short at 1303 if it fails to break it.( via Price action)

עסקה פעילה

long now. 1306

SL: 1302

הערה

Early detection should help - Possible Cypher Pattern in play

הערה

Long Idea Details:

עסקה סגורה: היעד הושג

target reached at point C..now looking to short to point D

הערה

עסקה סגורה: היעד הושג

time to close this trade..

Point D almost hit.... buying coming back at 200 MA
looking for a buy signal

הערה

Looks like closed the trade too early. Things doesnt look bright for Gold at this stage. Daily chart showing breakdown and 1 hr chart shows failure to break upwards

הערה

Interesting.. .. Looks like its not breaking the channel UP.. if it sustains, then it will be the time to buy.

הערה

Looking for downward move

הערה

I was not expecting this FAST.... Wooh...

הערה

Looking for retracement to near 1300/02 levels for new short entry
Fib level broken

הערה

I starting this idea at beginning of Feb 2019 and just at the end of March 2109, things have changed drastically..

Closing prices in March/ this week will tell us a lot.. The charts below look scary for bulls and cheerful for bears.
If the trend line is broken, then Bears will have it.

הערה

referring to comment above - If March closing is not the way as stated above,
possibly of Higher gold prices form here. Important to see where GOLD prices goes tomorrow to close the week and then month.

הערה

I was blind not to see this before.. Divergence - The signal to tell you what is about to happen...

הערה

Best place to short GOLD - 1300/1303
Weekly bearish engulfing
next few weeks are US earning season- Markets could be bullish- this is -ve for XAU

Best place to buy ( cheap ) would be around 125x

הערה

Looks like Bears will have tough time. cautiously bearish..

this H&S could be in play..

עסקה סגורה: היעד הושג

Pin Bar after support..

הערה

For the upcoming week - Outlook is still bearish.
Rangebound prices for the last week. No much movement on a weekly basis.
As such, the outlook is still bearish -Target 1263
Outlook is bearish as :
1. NFP data was positive
2. US Stocks still soaring as Employment Nos. are good and EU has problems.
3. Guidance will be taken from FOMC meeting minutes coming this week.

Long term view ( 12 months) : Bullish
1. Look to purchase at 1275 ( depending on Price Action)
2. Confirm buy at 1263

הערה

Lovely - Its reaching there.. Looking to buy around 1260 / 1270 - Price action confirmation required.

הערה

few days ago

הערה

double bottom formed and breakout looking... that's the time to go for long

הערה

It workss :
Continue to hold until 1279 is broken back.

עסקה פעילה

Short - SL tight..

עסקה פעילה

finally

ABFX6

גם על:

כתב ויתור

המידע והפרסומים אינם אמורים להיות, ואינם מהווים, עצות פיננסיות, השקעות, מסחר או סוגים אחרים של עצות או המלצות שסופקו או מאושרים על ידי TradingView. קרא עוד בתנאים וההגבלות.

ABFX6

גם על: