BACKTEST GOLD 13 JUNE 2023 - TUESDAY

14 ביוני 2023

SETUP TIMEFRAME: H4 (as Daily is still in sideway)

H4 Resistance to H4 Support

TECHNICAL (SOLEY PRICE ACTION)
- Because during sideway, easier to see by price action

ZONES FOR ENTRY

1) H1 SR (1966.97 - 1965.16)
- Confirmation Pattern = M15 Failure Swing Chart Pattern
- 150 pips of buy
Time: 1845 (Euro sesh)

2) H4 S + H1 SS (1951.87 - 1949.20)
- Confirmation Pattern = Touch and Go
- 199 pips of buy
Time: 2030 (US sesh)

3) D R + H4 R + H1 R (1973.25 - 1969.69)
- Confirmation Pattern = Touch and Go
- 290 pips of sell
Time: 2030 (US sesh)

4) D S + H4 (1947.19 - 1938.35)
- Confirmation Pattern = M5 Failure Swing Chart Pattern
- 49 pips of buy
Time: 2330 (US sesh)

FUNDAMENTALS

2030H = Consumer Price Index
Actual greater than forecast is good for currency

CPI m/m
Actual: 0.1%
Forecast: 0.2%
Previous: 0.4%

Result = Not good for currency, USD weaken, Gold strengthens

Note:
- Price went down to zone 2 and went up 199 pips during news as USD weaken because of the CPI news.
- Price is still in Daily sideway, as price reached the D R and H4 R, price went down to the Daily Support

14 ביוני 2023

הערה

The CPI (Consumer Price Index) is a measure of the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a basket of goods and services.

Different variations of CPI are reported to provide insights into short-term and long-term inflation trends. Here's an explanation of the differences between CPI M/M, CPI Y/Y, and Core CPI M/M:

CPI M/M (Consumer Price Index Month-over-Month):

CPI M/M refers to the percentage change in the CPI from one month to the next.
It measures the month-to-month inflation rate and indicates the rate at which consumer prices are increasing or decreasing over a specific one-month period.
It is useful for tracking short-term price fluctuations and identifying immediate changes in consumer prices.

CPI Y/Y (Consumer Price Index Year-over-Year):

CPI Y/Y refers to the percentage change in the CPI from the corresponding month of the previous year.
It measures the year-over-year inflation rate and provides a comparison of consumer prices over a one-year period.
It is useful for understanding the long-term trend in inflation and assessing the overall change in consumer prices over time.

Core CPI M/M (Core Consumer Price Index Month-over-Month):

Core CPI M/M excludes certain volatile components from the CPI calculation, such as food and energy prices.
It focuses on the underlying inflation trend by removing the effects of short-term price fluctuations in volatile sectors.
Core CPI M/M provides a measure of inflation that is less influenced by temporary factors and gives a better indication of underlying price changes.

14 ביוני 2023

הערה

As on 13th June 2023 - Wed, CPI data were lesser than the previous data.

A lower CPI (Consumer Price Index) generally indicates a decrease in the average level of prices for goods and services. Here are a few implications of a lower CPI:

Decreased Inflation: The CPI is often used as a measure of inflation. When the CPI decreases, it suggests that the rate of inflation has slowed down. Lower inflation can be indicative of a stable or potentially deflationary economic environment.

Reduced Purchasing Power Erosion: Lower CPI means that the rate of price increases has slowed down or prices may have even decreased. This can help preserve the purchasing power of consumers' money. When prices rise at a slower pace or decline, consumers may find it more affordable to purchase goods and services.

Potential Economic Weakness: While lower CPI may benefit consumers by reducing the cost of living, it can also indicate economic weakness. Persistent low CPI levels could be a sign of weak demand or a sluggish economy. It may suggest that businesses are facing challenges in raising prices, which could impact their profitability and investment decisions.

Impact on Monetary Policy: Central banks often use CPI data to guide their monetary policy decisions. If the CPI remains consistently lower than the central bank's inflation target, it may prompt the central bank to implement expansionary monetary policies, such as reducing interest rates or implementing quantitative easing, to stimulate economic activity.