3000 BY HALLOWWEEN DRAFT 8-1
It's 8:15 AM, 15 min to event time so I don't have time for notes. Let's get this sup and I will add notes as we go.
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8:18 AM, first of all there is conflicting pattern signal.1) it says first move is down
2) but ALL THE EVIDENCE WE HAVE point up
3) so EVEN IF first move is down like dotted line
4) at a minimum we should hit 50 before going down to question marks box
5) so that's out of the way
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6) as I am typing at 8:21, we are finally "gearing" up 7) for what?
8) in chart above, I don't even have hi-light this time
9) because I don't know what it should look like
10) but I do know that odds have increased of a second move
11) meaning a first move to 2450, check down to 2443-44?
12 then next move wouuld be 64-77
13) BUT I DON'T KNOW HOW LONG THAT MOVE SHOULD TAKE
14) hence I don't have a pattern
15) all I have is increased odds for A HIGHER MOVE OVERALL
16) but it's not obvious to me that it this move would be quick and move down hard
17) so that's why I have question marks in the third box
18) bc I am not confident at all that it will hit today
19) or really, if will hit at all
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20) so at 8:26 and 2443.45, a move to 45 here eliminates "the down first pattern"21) so we can let that go if we cross 45
22) and that's it, I will add live notes at least for 3-4 hours until top is in
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23) 8:32 AM, did not cross 45 DOWN FIRST PATTERN HIT24 BE CAREFUL HERE!!!
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25) it's 2440 still, but I I don't know what's supposed to happen hereהערה
26) it's 8:37 new low at 34.xx, THAT MEANS 2420 , 2410... AND 2390הערה
27) 8:42 AM 2434.92, I can see a move for 2395 shaping up right nowהערה
28) 8:51, 2431, by noon we will be at 2390 floorהערה
29) 2430.66, so ONCE IT HITS 2417-2420 30) it should bounce 6-10 points
31) before moving down hard to the floor
32) and I'm going change it to 11:15 instead of noon
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7/16, 8:58 2433, OBVIOUSLY YOU SHOULD'VE EXIT ALL LONGS1) but your call if you want to join the dark side
2) and short this sucker to 2390
3) that's 43 pts!
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4) if I had another 30 min for drafting 5) I would've seen it
6) but there wasn't enough time to run out where "the down first move go"
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7) IN CHART ABOVE, THE BOLD LINE OVER THE HILIGHT8) is the double reversal marker
9) this is why I said it's up to you if you want to short
10) bc odd soft HARD SWING UP EXIST
11) ONLY IF BULL S BREAK AND HOLD THAT LINE FOR 30 MIN
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12) TIME OUT... 13 ) they have shot..
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14) not yet... 15) bulls need 38 and hold right now
16) TURNING DOWN HERE IS UGLY
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17) 9:11, 37.xx, it's 2450 thenהערה
18) I said this earlier too, that they have to go to atleast 2450 19) BUT THAT'S ONLY TRUE IF THERE'S NO SECOND LOW
20) the odds swing here pretty hard if you make one more low
21) bt they swing back even HARDER IF BULL HOLD 37 RIGHT HERE
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22) 9:13, no don't turn back down!!1הערה
9:22, 8 min before NY regular open 2437.301) HANGING AT THE LINE DOESN'T HELP
2) gotta be clear above it
3) if this is not obvious, the turn curve at the top will cap this
4) AND IT WILL GO BACK DOWN ANY WAY
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9:35 37.82 AND NOTHING CONCLUSIVE YETהערה
9:42, OK so once at 2450 what happens?הערה
NO IDEA. I HAVE ZERO IDEAS.הערה
9:44 AM, 2446.72, so now we're in splitting hairs territoryהערה
9:49 play chart at top1) the down first route's ceiling is like-54-ish
2) then it goes to 2420 next
3) so let's find the the top and the route down to 2420
4) but my suspicion says 2400 or lower
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5) in chart above 6) how fast this goes down
7) depends on next 3 hours
8) if bulls let this drop to 2437 again
9) IT IS STRAIGHT DOWN TO 2392
10 ) that's where we are now
11) there are 2 options here
A) if bulls want to hold 2420 floor, THEY HAVE TO KILL THE CLOCK
B) they don't have to push up, just sideways to kill clock
C) but if they lose in next 90 minutes?
D) it is STRAIGHT DOWN
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12) odds of a higher high here not impossible , but dropped hard13) bc of "down first route"
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4) continuing, 2410 is on the table5) I don't have a signal for that though
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6) time out...7) I can't figure this out
8) it's not obvious yet because the the trends are still twisting
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1) here is what I do know 2) in chart above there is a box fore 2430s
3) the morning drop at 8:30 has the curved the the top into a super bearish move
4) IF BULLS WANT TO AVOID 2392
5) THEY HAVE TO STAY AT 2440S UNTIL THE TRENDS SHIFT
6) if this drops for any reason to 2436, it's going straight to 2392
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7) that's the part I know8 I also know the ceiling past 2450, if bulls drag a staircase zig out
9) is 2477-2482
10) before they get pushed back down
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11) so those two are your binary outcomes while I draft new maps for this soneהערה
10:56, 51.15 this route means 77-82הערה
11:02 AM, AND WE CAN DO 2477-2482 TODAY, OK? NOT TOMORROW, TODAY!הערה
11:17 AM BY 1:20 PM ET, SO IN 2 HOURSהערה
1) we have a shot of doing that in 2 hours 2) I don't know if it's favored
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3) at least 3 in 8 says we do 2480 in 2 hoursהערה
4) 11:25, 2461, favored now, for 2478 by 1:330 PM ETהערה
5) 10:39, 63.87, it's going to hit soon, it's too close to the ceiling at 2480הערה
6) typo, 11:39 AM, not 10:39, bc it was already 11:25 before thatהערה
11:56, 63.65, after 2479, it should be 44-50 again before finally to 2520. WED OR THURS
1) and that's a wrap on the the first rally
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2) 12:02 i price stalls here and drops 3) there's 1-2 moves left before 2520
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4) 12:20 2460.54 still favored to do 2479-2480 soon 5) but please understand
6) I keep up on notes pretty extensively throughout the day
7) with that said the overall picture is 2520 and done with first rally
8) we are 2462 as I type
9) the next move is 79-80, it's only 40 left to 2520
10) obviously if price traces down, it's 2445-2450 again before a move to 2520
11) BUT IF YOU ARE AT 2480, it's NOT THAT FAR FROM FROM 2520
12) that you would "need a retrace" for
13) especially bc after 2520, the odds of retesting 2450 is almost a sure thing.
14) so do you need to test it twice
15) that's what happens a lot of times so
16) meshing this out doesn't improve odds one way or the other
17) just wait to see what Toyko does
18) first thought in my mind is they try to sell it down
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1:25 PM, 62.53, last chance for 79-80 today1) if not here
2) then sideways the reset of the way
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2:00 last chance being compromised.3) bulls need 68, 69 soon to correct trend
4) or it's sideways rest of way
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2:28, bulls gave up 1) sideways now rest of day
2 this makes a check to 44-50 likelier before 2480 and 2520
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2:50 another last second try with no conviction3) it's 15 points, not 50
4) that's why it's no conviction
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