RIGHT NOW #014, 100 POINTS IN 24 HOURS?

מעודכן

Last time I called for 100 point drop in 36 hours, it happened in 17 hours. This time the call is 2440s, maybe 2445. Then 2345 within 24 hours of the high. Because RIGHT NOW drafts are 8 hours or less, this may take 4-6 drafts to complete. The blue water mark here is GENERIC for 24 hours so let's get this up first and I'll update continuously for 24 hours. This is listed as neutral bc it's long first to 2440s AND THEN short to 2340s.

הערה

6:25, 2408.86, HUGE TYPO ON BOTTOM BOX
1) should be 2335 not 2435
2) bc that's a 100 point drop
3) not 10 point drop
4) this setup is very unique
5) even though I saw it originally on Sunday night
6) I thought it was completely dead when I announced that 2410 was dead yesterday
7) if not for Israel Hezbollah coming AT EXACTLLY THE RIGHT MOMENT
8) this move doesn't happen
9) but at 6:39 PM ET AND 2409.30, it's 100% live
10) I can't call 2445 as "favorite" until 2432 gets hit on time
11) so ....

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14) continuing in chart above, if this going to happen
15) Tokyo has to come in right here at 2408.5
16) if they don't, this entire curve to 2445 will down shift within 2 hours
17) in which case the high drops to to 2432

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18) so that's the first call
19) turn right now to 2423-2432 before 11 PM ET, which is about 5 hours out
20) will add more notes if situation changes
21) but I have to drive for the next 90 minutes so becareful
22) as I can't update in 90 minutes

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10:32 PM with war news, the irregular moves happen way more often.
a) as they do not follow normal trend/vol rules
b) bc with normal trend and vol rules...
c) THIS SHOULD NOT MOVE PAST 2412 before NY OPEN
d) so I am basically calling an irregular move ALREADY
e) to call 40 up and down under 2 hours is impossible
f) you would not see it coming
g) from a news perspective it would take a
h) an official intervention announcement from Turkey
i) or something like that

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10:47 2404.73... on the edges of killing the setup.
a) under 2404 is a deal breaker
b) unless its come back up quickly
c) bc it's within tolerance
d) but under 2404 for a while means
e) 2412 is not breakable under 12 hours

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6) continuing in chart above, we are going up
7) to 2446 driven by some war headline
8) I haven't seen it
9) but it has to be bc that's the only way price moves like this
10) here in this spot
11) what I am trying to say is the move is going to be
12) NOT NORMAL, so be aware

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13) and for the record, from 2405 this hour, that's 40 up
14) and then 100 down within 24 hours of high
15 ) that is calling 140 points of vol in 25 hours

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16) in chart above, gray route is basically draft 4 after generic (blue)
17) bc it was blue, yellow, orange, red, then gray
18) if you noticed, while hi-lights moved a lot
19) I only moved the high at 2445 about 1 hour the whole range
20) from 2 AM to 3 AM
21) bc I just don't see the high coming AFTER London regular open
22) so at 11:29 PM and 2418.xx as I type
23) the call is 2446 BEFORE 3 AM ET, so within 211 minutes

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11:45 PM 2418.XX, I was slow to confirm this move today, but been planning it for a while.
1) so play #011 from 34 hours ago:

2) but the trend engine said the last chance for it was 27 hours ago in #012, just zoom out before you play it
3) and that was already past the limit vs #009 (play this one to see the two routes)

4) so if not for Israel/Hezbollah news, this would've been at 2303 already
5) but for the record, I posted this chart in notes for #007 just a couple of hours into Monday:

6) in chart above, we just hit the level that would be the first blue circle
7) the rest should co-operate much more in sync

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8) forgot #012 (this was when -statistically- this route SHOULD HAVE DIED:

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9) and if you are thinking NEW ALL TIME HIGHS?
a) its not going to happen
b) wayyyy too late
c) we needed #006 to hit for that to happen

d) why?
e) bc of the ensuing sell off AHEAD OF FOMC TOMORROW
f) you need 2392-2400 to hold
g) it's too late for that
h) we move to 2446 tonight
i) we will tag 2388 before 2PM tomorrow (FOMC presser)

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j) 12:10 AM, 7/31, in theory the 2-way vol on the way up
k) IS REALLY NASTY...so be aware ok?
l) meaning the swings can be surprisingly deep each time to you move up

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12:18 AM 15.53
m) not sure about that any more
n) bc of the clock running so low ahead of 3 AM ET

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1:34 AM, 2420.64, TIGHTEN UP STOPS

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1:47 AM 2417.80 London pre-open in 13-min.
1) and selling already started
2) the move isn't complete
3) but it also doesn't have to play out this way
4) the move under 17 just now really complicates the picture for next 90 min

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2:08 AM, so for most setups this would be over at 2417.61 as I typing
1) the singular exception is a war headline
2) bc I already have a top-in signal
3) so 3 minutes later and price is fighting to get the line back
4) use much caution here
5) bc this part is where it stops making sense

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6) continuing in chart above, top-in reasons piling up
7) and the 3 AM turn is starting to look really ugly

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3:08 AM 2419.70, I have all kinds of of top in signals
1) I think this is finished
2) WITH EXCEPTION TO A WAR HEADLINE REVERSAL
3) in normal circumstances (no ware headline)
4) I would be so much more sure
5) but this entire move have come VERY LATE
6) so that's it for the top BUT BE WARY OF ANOTHER WAR HEADLINE

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3:18 AM 2418.35, first target down is 2382 by NY OPEN AT 9:30
1) we are not going to get 100 point drop
2) bc we needed 2445+ for that range
3) but from here to 3 AM tomorrow?
4) hold on...

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5) the 2-way vol works both ways
6) so since we didn't go to 2445
7) we are UNLIKELY to get as deep as 2345, even tho ...
8) the "in theory" floor for before London open tomorrow
9) is 2340
10) it's really hard to see anything under 2353
11) UNLESS WE HIT THAT BEFORE NY CLOSE
12) possible sure, probable is an entirely different thing

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3:39 AM, ANOTHER HEADLINE?

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3:47 AM 2418.53, so this is not done
1) my top is 2445
2) bc of 2 crucial vol limit sitting right there
3) and in this scenario, they usually get hit

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4) but you're dealing with unpredictable war news
5) and some really messed up waves
6) so I am going to bed
7) my base case is this
8) wherever this lands before 8 AM, so 248 minutes from now
9) we hit 2303 before end of Friday
10) good night
11) I'll post update in group when I wake up

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4:33 AM 2416.31, got a reliable top-in signal.
1) I"m lights out
2) this shouldn't move to 2419 again
3) if it does, watch headlines

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4:44, 2419.xx couldn't last 15 minutes
4) I am told this has to do more with Turkey
5) which was apparently not a player in this
6) until the last couple of days
7) this is entirely different than Iran
8) Turkey has much resources and is a much bigger deal than Iran
9) so watch news for Turkey

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10) based on the origin of the spike at 2415, this move can hit 2443
11) by 7 AM
12) I'm going to bed for good

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5:26, 19.66 the momentum for that move is gone. Odds of breaking 2425 dropping really fast.

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5:29, if you play chart at top, price has been weaker vs generic hi-light the whole way.
1) that generic is a type of average
2) so in theory, it's all over already

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5:49, I'm going to sleep through this, but I just realized ADP is 8:30.

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6:44 AM, 2418.79. LOST THAT LINE MINUTES AGO.
1) now a move at ADP is unlikely
2) not eliminated, just not at all favored
3) if this was any other situation, I would have little doubt that top is in
4) I am just wary bc this move since 2369 is all headline driven
5) and was revived after in a very ugly combination of trend waves
6) so I'm just going stay awake until ADP

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8:06 AM, 2418.31, these signs can disappear in 9 minutes
1) if this starts to drop quickly
2) as it is doing right now

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8:13, 2 min to go, at 18.61, looks like 1 more high

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8:15, no instant reaction at all... weird

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8:18, still 18.63, the longer nothing happens the more this favors top in
1) bc the one more high involves a curve into a spike
2) if this moves to 2417, odds of no more high double

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3) 8:27 AM 7, 20.85 moving kind of slow ..
4) ECI release in 3 min, plus it's 8:30 event time
5) still not over

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8:38 AM, 2420.21, targets before FED AT 2:00 PM are
1) 2401
2) 2392
3) 2383

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4) we are going to find out here in 19 minutes or by 9:00
5) if this thing is selling off to meet these targets
6) or it's just ting here at 2420.xx waiting for another headline

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9:01 AM 20.85 and not wanting to move
1) I don't any sign that says hard drop here
2) I also can't explain the sideways move
3) except that the Israel/Turkey tensions maybe real
4) I mean a move like this into FOMC
5) that's asking to get rug-pulled
6) silver vs gold is ugly AF
7) this thing is going go 2303 this Friday or Monday 8/5 at the very latest
8) but until it's over, it's not over
9) I have to sleep

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1) while price can do anything it wants to do
2) the 2 most common moves from position right now is this binary

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10:25, 2423.02, finally legit sign of top in.

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10:31, 23.93, it's not ready...
1) that was the most bearish 8-imin bar since 2369
2) and top 3 since before 2353
3) but the waves are not in bear position yet
4) there has to be some major zig zag to unwind the top

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5) can't prove top is in yet
6) even with that bar

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11:32 AM, 2422.20 and things just got complicated
1) the slowest top RIGHT NOW, would happen in 21 hours
2) and it's NOT OBVIOUS 2455 is the top
3) I am not saying that's going to happen
4) I am saying that its entirely reasonable now
5) for top to be 2460 Thursday morning
6) meaning the range of outcomes in next 24 hours
7) just exploded

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12:13 PM, 2424.42 reviewing situation ahead of FOMC
1) I have seen trend position before FOMC that's strong
2) but strong off a low
3) I've NEVER seen position like this ahead of FOMC
4) with the caveat that ANYTHING CAN HAPPEN in hours after FOMC
5) based on what we have RIGHT NOW
6) the call should be:
a) 2440s next
b) 2450s Thursday morning
c) and its NOT OBVIOUS that would be the high
7) obviously this can change in 5 minutes after 2:00 PM
8) maybe Turkey-Israel tensions are real
9) that's my only read of this
10) bc if the scenario for stated above play out
11) it is not obvious at all what happens after Thursday

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12:41, so this chart I prepared a couple days ago:

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2:01, 25.XX, still early, but if 28 is top, then we only get about 90 point drop in 24 hours from now.

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2:10 PM, 2423.xx, so above 2418, one more high is still the favorite
1) even at 2418.5 for the first 15-25 min
2) one more high would still be favored
3) this is bc the waves a 2428 are incomplete
4) either they complete (which would be like 10 PM if it's steady
5) or they get crushed, which is unlikely from this position
6) as of right now, no call

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2:38 PM, 2426.68, POST FOMC NOTES: all these scenarios favor at least 1 more high before midnight
1) sideways to close
2) drip down to close, close above 2418
3) anything stronger than that
4) the only way this rally ends early now ...
5) is under 2418 for at least 20-30 minutes (so the waves turn)
6) so barring a surprise
7) it's going to 2443-2446
8) 8PM if early, Thursday morning if late
9) 100 point drop in 24 hours remains valid as long as top is before midnight
10 ) and that means ENTIRE GIANT V run also valid
11) if price still moving up after midnight, trend waves will move too much
12) and back to 8 hours at a time, and that's it, will post #015 in group

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3:35 PM POST WRAP UP: 2445.80 on strong momentum
1) it's above 46 as I type
2) so it has already passed all the important vol limits
3) from here up 52-55 is easy but
4) once beyond that, price is out of bounds vs a series of indicators
5) not to mention silver
6) it would be out of bounds vs 7 out 10 trend maps
7) the value here for long is disappearing
8) now is the time to scheme short to 2303
9) it its strong, it's sideways to up before midnight so 8 more hours

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4:01 the whole point of this post is to call 100 point drop in 24 hours or less.
1) so if 2451 was high
2) then the call would be 2351 before NY close tomorrow
3) but we don't yet know that
4) I think it should be 53-56
5) bc of "sideways to up momentum"
6) and it's a got all night to do that
7) and develop 100 pt crash setup
8) if it's still going past midnight, then there's too many questions
9) move on to 8 hour drafts
10) there's no draft for tonight, just waiting it out

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7/31, 12:17 AM ET, 2444.25, For people who are interested
1) I am on #016
2) there's a link to it right below in "related ideas"
3) if you want to know how that 100 pt drop is developing

Binary_Forecasting_Service

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