Gold rising fuelled by Fundamental factor

11 באפר׳ 2022

Gold's general commentary: DX again reversed (# +0.12% session High’s) as it is no surprise that current configuration should be constantly pushing Gold Lower, Selling every local High towards #1,921.80 - #1,927.80 Neutral territory. No doubt that Gold is also affected by the effect of DX policy remarks, testing the #99.90 Resistance zone as correlation standpoint should be visible from today’s U.S. session. Not surprisingly, last week’s DX developments, which were later strongly Bought, had less or no impact on Gold and pushed it downwards, as DX Bullish rally might be messenger of Multi-Year Bearish cycle on Gold which I am expecting. This tight balance keeps the Daily chart’s Ascending Channel valid in High Volatility belt as I am keeping #1,927.80 as old / new Support and line of utmost importance. I have noted that Gold Traders will witness this Volatility until Bond Yields stabilization (already took place but Gold is lagging with major move) and then, by my estimations, I expect further takedown followed by #1,900.80 psychological barrier test (which shouldn’t be Bought back instantly), as Gold always gives #2 additional Lower Low extension and then prints (probable) healthy rebound. My analysis is based on Spot prices and I can say with certainty that those Gold moves that I are witnessing right now are sign how unstable market has become. While the threat of further Buying on the Weekly timeframe is still there (chances are slim), Sellers may be interested in an opportunity from above #Q2 opening level on the Hourly 4 chart's configuration.


Technical analysis: Decent changes so far where Gold delivered another aggressive Bullish spike (remember my commentary from few sessions ago where I mentioned unexpected spikes on both sides) regarding Daily perspective where a decisive Hourly 4 chart’s Medium-term Selling formation could be forming (entry / risk levels can be decided according to this breakout candle if the variance allows), aligning with Daily chart’s fluctuation which might be pushing Gold Lower from already priced in Supply-Demand zone, and if today’s U.S. session opens with positive fashion, it has #1,967.80 test ahead on the cards (extended from the previous Low’s, priced in at #1,927.80 configuration which offers great Selling value if it gets tested and invalidated). Personally, Buying seems strongly limited along with rising Treasury Yields (Bond Yields) near Monthly peak’s Resistance zone. Even though strong upswing and Bullish presence, market still didn’t invalidated and closed the session above #1,952.80 barrier, however Selling pattern seems to be invalidated, while Support zone still remains intact on the other side. Gold is looking vulnerable since there are only #2 strong Support lines towards #1,900.80 psychological barrier, while upside has #4 Resistances just within #30 points. As expected, April’s fractal is and will be Bullish Month for Yields, therefore Gold will remain an strong Selling option. I am expecting #1,882.80 Double Bottom break within #10 sessions, unleashing further losses. As long as this Neutral aggressive swings last, I will implement strict Risk management.


My position: I Highly doubt Bullish potential, however if #1,950.80 breaks, Gold may fill #1,967.80 Intra-day, which is my personal maximum. I will use that Buying opportunity Intra-day, and look to Sell Gold on the aftermath from one of the upper values. If #1,952.80 rejects the Price-action, I won't be Selling unless I have Selling confirmation (#1,927.80 Support break).