Gold - Freejack

At this point I think the ICL will continue and we will drop below the October 1 low
(1458$).
Bear etail traders are totally confused after the perfect head and shoulders pattern broke down but isntead of goin glower we just negated the neckline.

Now bulls think that it's a flag and we are going to break above 1520 soon.
We are too late in the intermediate cycle for any break higher at this point.

Gold will drop into its intermediate cycle low and I'm going to short it.

I want to see the RSI zigzag what comes at the ICL .
TSI and MACD needs to turn down into the oversold territory.

Right now we are just fighting on the 50 SMA but I think it will give up and the next level we will tag the 100 SMA at 1433$.

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Again...
I’m 100% sure that any break above the trendline will be a fake breakout.

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This is not a flag for the cycle traders. Only pattern traders will buy the breakout here but I see zero chance for a significant breakout before november.

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Look at the XAUEUR chart. Its crawling on the 50SMA. It will break down soon...

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We need more than a 40$ correction in the XAUEUR. Maybe only 80-100. But definetely more than 40.

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Even the weak dollar and the trade deal failure was not enough for gold to make a false breakout.

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Big drop is coming.

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Banks love the false breakouts if they didn't create it that means too many people are long and waiting for the next leg up.
They will pay our trip down to the 1440s

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A follow through day tomorrow and we are at 1460.

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We are going to have a long day on Friday.
Trump And Liu He are going to meet on Friday 14:45 EST. That’s 20:45 Berlin time. I guess it will last no longer than 2 hrs. So the announcement will be in the last 2 hrs of the trading : between 21 and 23 Berlin time.(15 :00 and 17 :00 EST)

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XAUEUR is szarting the panic selling finally.

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The break of 1335 is the key.

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I think XAUUSD will join the party soon.
The break of 1460 will trigger it.

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Many expensive newsletter writer is talking about that gold will not have ICL this time or it’s already in.
I think this time will not be an exception.
XAUUSD didn’t bounce with the dollar drop.

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Still waiting for the drop.

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A few traders are szarting to talk about silver leading the metal sector. And siover broke the down trendline.

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This is not a breakout. This is a sideways move which broke the trendline. These kind of trendline breaks almost always false
Signals and the next big move comes to the downside.

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Moment of truth:

The daily close will be important. I guess goldbugs will be suckered into this bounce. And finally we will drop into the ICL.

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We broke the trendline.

But....!

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With stocks breaking to new highs

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And DXY bouncing from the 200 SMA

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Ahead of FOMC meeting I’m not buying this.

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All who bought the breakout today need to have a plan B if we go back below the trendline.

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Bulls are in plan B.

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Failed breakout.
The breakdown of 1280 will be nasty.

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This is the pattern you don’t want to be long:

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