XAUUSD SHORT BUY, LONG TERM BEAR
מעודכן
From the start of sharing my ideas of Gold, price has been moving in my direction thus far. Price came down to one candle I was targeting for a short term long where the bearish momentum can continue long term.
On the far left, where it is highlighted, was the candle I had my eye on a gold to do a short buy up until that last green candle. The last green candle I marked as Weekly Banker Candle, where I expect price to pullback to. I see this area being the are where I can expect Gold Bearish Momentum picking up as Gold Overall has been a Bearish Market from the very first time I shared my thoughts (September 14, 2022. Price was at 1693 when I first shared)
With the Fed rate hike cycle domination, USD Strengthens, Equities and Commodities are bearish.
As I was back tracking the gold movement as far as 2006, I spot a FVG at around 1360, which has not been filled ever since, as market kept going up and up. This are is also very close to where I had marked up as a potential area where price can drop to. The lowest I can see price dropping to, which is giving me a stronger confirmation that gold can tank to that area. 1300-1360 or so.
On the far left, where it is highlighted, was the candle I had my eye on a gold to do a short buy up until that last green candle. The last green candle I marked as Weekly Banker Candle, where I expect price to pullback to. I see this area being the are where I can expect Gold Bearish Momentum picking up as Gold Overall has been a Bearish Market from the very first time I shared my thoughts (September 14, 2022. Price was at 1693 when I first shared)
With the Fed rate hike cycle domination, USD Strengthens, Equities and Commodities are bearish.
As I was back tracking the gold movement as far as 2006, I spot a FVG at around 1360, which has not been filled ever since, as market kept going up and up. This are is also very close to where I had marked up as a potential area where price can drop to. The lowest I can see price dropping to, which is giving me a stronger confirmation that gold can tank to that area. 1300-1360 or so.
הערה
Price has drop significantly from the time I published this idea. It is still within the red weekly candle on the left side. Looking at the 4hr timeframe of that weekly candle, I see a banker candle/ order block somewhere 1618-1819 where I would expect price to reverse making that short term buy move to at least 1700.הערה
As mentioned above, price did continue the bearish move where I expected and more. Price dropped to 1615 or so before it rallied more than 400 pips to the upside (Price is currently at 1662, as I'm typing this)This Analysis was done on Monday 26, 2022, before any news came out which would add volume to the market.
As I have mentioned before, a lot of my analysis are not based on news much but solely based on price action and what the candles are telling me.
My bias for price to reach 1700-1712 is still on the table. Will update later on.
הערה
Update on this setup for GOLD.As stated on September 28, my bias for gold pushing to at least 1700-1712 is still in play. As I'm typing this price is currently 1697 which is 330+ pips push to the upside from September 28 and 750+ pips from my initial analysis of gold reversing from the area at 1618-1619.
These Bullish move is a relief rally as gold has been so heavily bearish in
September. Depending on the NFP on Friday 7th, October, will determine if gold is going to continue this bullish rally or can reach a certain area where it can drop due to the interest rate hike which leads to the dollar domination result in weak gold.
The link below, shows where I predict gold to target in this bullish move. Currently on the daily charts, it has broken a high which is telling me that there is a shift in structure but will have to do a pullback creating a new HL where I can confirm if Gold will push to somewhere 1760 or more. Will continue to update on this setup.
הערה
Looking at the 4hr timeframe, I see a potential pullback at 1704-1705 where price can drop back to 1664.5-1664 or so. Filling in the FVG due to the strong bullish move it made today. Currently price is at 1700, 30-40 pips more from my latest update. If price keeps pushing up passing the 1704/1705 I see it going up to at least 1720. Got my order in to catch that potential pullback (400 pips pullback). Let's see how this plays out. Will continue to monitor and update.הערה
As I'm typing this, gold highest price was 1712.5 (Weekly banker candle or order blockI was targeting). It went exactly to the price I was expecting since September 28. Based on this, Price has a great potential to reaching the Daily Banker candle or order block as shown in the recent chart example before it can do a reversal. I am expecting price to continue this upward move to 1720- 1725 or so before it do some reversal on Wednesday ie tomorrow. Currently price is at 1705 which I see is a pullback for the upward continuation.הערה
Updated Weekly Chart showing the candle I was targeting, the candle I was targeting since September 26 from my initial analysis from the very top.
הערה
Price did in fact kept pushing up as expected and went as high as 1730. Based on what I see in the chart above, I am expecting price to go up still to approximately 1750-1752 before a reversal to happen. This bullish move for the past couple of days have been a relief rally for the overall bearish market I had originally analyze from the very start of publishing my ideas. Will continue to monitor and update this setup. Let's see how it all plays out.
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