LIVE #15! ELEVEN TRADING DAYS LEFT TO 01/10/24

SUMMARY - This is the 12/21/23, 15-min bar, 12-trading day, ultra detailed, CONTINUOUS EVOLVING FORECAST for direction and shape of price action in FX_IDC XAUUSD gold ticker. Continuing from #14! where I last discussed the crossing volatility zones, this is the most complete draft I have for next 12 days. Since this route does not reset the ratios like we want, this will cap the gold rally at through February 22nd at 2280-2330. The window from 2/23-03/08 still have huge questions at this time.

DETAILS - As a warning, the first rule of trading is don't lose money. As a reminder, the second rule of trading is don't forget the first rule. As usual, this MUST be used with continuing notes posted throughout duration of this forecast to supplement - not replace - your trading discipline and risk management. Be aware that there is AN ACTUAL LIMIT on the number updates I can do per post, so I am not going be super detailed. That said, it's been working out anyway. Links for most recent and relevant posts are below for background and how we got here. I recommend that you replay them occasionally as frame of reference, but most importantly, as evidence that legit forecasting help you win day in and day out. And if my forecasts help you make REAL MONEY, help me out by spreading the word to people you know PERSONALLY to keep this thing going. Please hit like/boost button.

DATES AT THE BOTTOM - Ignore this, I tried to label them right because Christmas and New Years. The post resets where they are on the chart so it doesn't work.

הערה:

SHOULD BE CLOSER TO THIS - Adjustments for all channels:

הערה:

12/21 6:44 PM 2053.94.. not sure how committed this move is
a) I'm looking for a shift up to reset ratios
b) meaning 2150 then back to 2080
c) but the waves are more complicated now then they were last week
d) so a lot of gray here

הערה:

7:14 PM AGAIN, 01/10-03/08/2024...
a) I've been talking about this zone since May of 2022, so the last 19 months
b) I am still committed to this zone
c) my only issue is how big is this "big move" and I am not impressed with the current setup we have
d) if a football team is 4-0 and in championships is compared with another team that is 4-1 in championships...
e) which is better?
f) obviously the 4-1 team is better bc they PLAYED IN 5 CHAMPIONSHIPS
g) so that loss counts FOR THEM NOT AGAINST THEM....
h) but life is not so simple...
i) people like "4 and O" MUCH MORE THAN THEY DO "4 and 1"

הערה:

j) here's what SHOULD HAVE HAPPENED (where black is x, blue is 2x, and red is 4x)

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k) and here's our situation now:

l) in chart above.. if price does NOT KEEP MOVING ON UP....
m) see how blue (2x) is drifting too close to red (4x)?
n) any closer and it's going to be a problem

הערה:

o) in fact, black is having a hard time staying on top of blue bc of that sell off
p) so in a truly bullish situation, you would have gotten a big bounce last several days to push black up...
q) we did not get that and we don't have that now...

הערה:

12/21 9:14 PM, let's deal with next 16 HOURS FIRST:

הערה:

a) I'm not in this one...
b) but it looks like it should make it, odds of getting shot down lower than Tuesday night/Wednesday mornign
c) so there's that
d) I am working on that 01/10-03/08 window

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10:04 PM ET...
a) and that leads to a 03/08/24 difference of 2400 vs 2730+/-100

הערה:

b) and for past several years the long term regression sets always showed a considerable lull sideways period before 01/10...
c) we HAVE NOT BEEN DOING THAT...
d) I can't imagine that many people or institutions being offsides this late in the game

הערה:

e) and this is how late we are overall, we "should have been" be 2150 tomorrow:

הערה:

12/21, 11:31 PM ET: SO THIS IS THE CHANNEL:

הערה:

a) so in chart above the average of those two is 2065
b) compared with chart at top, with three boxes at 2035, 2060, and 2070; average is 2055
c) so price as I am typing is 2050
d) so think about that for a second...
e) I have two scenarios where if you play them both correctly, your entry for Jan-Mar run would be average 2065 or 2055
f) BUT PRICE RIGHT NOW IS 2050...
g) this is why when someone asked earlier... and I said if your window is at least 30-35 days
h) and it was 2048 then... looks fine to me

הערה:

i) here was the other box

הערה:

j) I am still waiting on the remainder of the weakness which can still last through next Wed 12/28
k) but this is only true if we go sideways to 2030-35
l) odds now favor that low to come from above, so 2045-2050
m) this is the time to stop thinking day trade and week trade
n) start thinking buy and hold for 2280 min 2400 max (by 01/24/24)

הערה:

o) 3 weeks from now, we do 2100 calls for January 26th and get 10X OR 20X YOUR MONEY!!

הערה:

12/22, 12:10 AM, THEY ARE BOTH THE SAME CHANNEL OFFSET BY 36-48 HOURS...
a) so it doesn't improve the odds any...
b) so what?
c) we will know by end of next Wednesday what it is going to be
d) but your range is 2033-2052, somewhere in there

הערה:

12/22 9:14 AM 2068.XX
a) from here on out my forecasts is for the next 77 days AS A WHOLE
b) so if you are trading daily or weekly, I can't help you as I just don't have time to deal with that

הערה:

c) 9:33 AM ET rugpull floor is 2048 as the trap setup remains valid
d) but floor is 2048

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e) let's be real, floor is 2038 and rising 3-5 pts per trading day
f) but for the current move, I don't think you are going to get that check to 2038 TODAY....
g) it looks like 27th at 2048

הערה:

h) 26th at 2048 or 27th at 2055

הערה:

12/22 11:18 AM ET, 2060.XX, 4 and 8 min bars have a setup up pointing at 2052, 48, 45 and even 42...
a) I don't know if it will play
b) I do know if you give me anything under 2048 I am going to buy it
c) again, keep in mind I am buying for 01/25 top between 2280 and 2400

הערה:

11:51 54.xx bouncing from 51.xx..
a) I don't it's done
b) I really think we can hit 48, 45, but 42 and 38 are question marks...
c) again, I am buying for 2280 or 2400 , the difference between 45 and 38 is 7 pts I can live with

הערה:

d) but it's also true that I will keep buying should it keep dropping all the way to 33
e) start hedging at 30

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f) here's my chart, I am waiting for it to break red line before I do something:

הערה:

a) the two lower boxes are legit targets
b) with the bottom of the channel I talked about last just a few points under lower box

הערה:

12:40 PM 2054.56
a) bottom in 60 min or less (for today)
b) if it hasn't already
c) so market reopens Monday at 6 PM ET

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2:09 PM, it looked bottom was in for today, and it's probably is (2055.xx) as I type...
a) but the checkdown floor is 2045-46 and it hasn't made it there
b) my thoughts are that it would Monday night
c) but whichever, if it comes that's a strong buy bc I am not sure you get a better entry the rest of the way

הערה:

2:24 PM so after market is 5 PM ET... but really after 4:30 nothing happens...
a) so 126 minutes to move from 2052 to 2046 and close 2055? ...
b) maybe, but a tight fit for low volume

הערה:

3:48 PM ET THIS POST IS DONE, HERE IS NEXT ONE: