XAUUSD in a Tripple Bottom or break ? Gold in Trouble

16 באפר׳ 2019

Followup to my ongoing analysis of Gold.
Admittedly I have been a bit off recently.
Generally good on Direction but messy on entries.

Gold bulls are clearly up against the heat here.
Many traders do not belive in "Tripple Bottoms".
Each time a support is tested, it gets weaker.

If the bottom breaks, I see a few support zones of interest.
But first a "Dead Cat Bounce" to 1290 or 1300 retest is likely.
The amount of buying left at current price will be telling.


1267/70 is a realistic target of leg (E).
1250/40 will be Bull's Last Stand.

.

Previous Analysis:

Short call (a bit early)

Long call (under estimated)

Long term I still see one more leg up

16 באפר׳ 2019

הערה

We have a breach of support. Shown here is a smaller TF fib not included on live chart above (to reduce clutter) but we can see a bit of reaction to the 10.236, thus confirming the Fib's continued influence.

.

16 באפר׳ 2019

הערה

That spike below support could be a "Stop Hunt" or a "Bear Trap" given the perfect reaction to the 10.236 If so, then we will see a bounce now, to retest 1300 from the underside.

.

16 באפר׳ 2019

הערה

So much for the bear trap? Anyway, we have hit first possible support watching closely

.

16 באפר׳ 2019

הערה

Broke second support as well. Early NY session, lets see if that is the low for the day

.

16 באפר׳ 2019

הערה

This fib of last leg down has its Band 9 right around the next target Band 9 is often the end of moves. Usually the 9.618 but in this case the 9.236 might since is within higher tf support zone.

.