Relief rally on Gold / Potential Top near

30 בספט׳ 2022

Gold's general commentary: Gold failed to break #1,640.80 - #1,642.80 Support fractal throughout yesterday's session however on the other side, Buying currently remains very limited and is showing signs of exhaustion. Despite the Higher High’s peak rejection on Bond Yields, Gold was extending it’s Selling candles, showcasing the strong underlying Bearish trend. With DX Trading within steep Descending Channel and Usd-Jpy pair on the Weekly High’s regarding E.U. opening, I am only expecting Gold to become product in huge speculation mode and under Intra-day Volatility. If Gold don't break #1,680.80 and closes the session above the configuration, it is going to be a ranged session on Monday but if it does, I may see a quite Bullish action on the aftermath (however less likely since Gold is already Trading on almost #50 point relief rally, as market cannot only Trade in one direction).


Technical analysis: As for the Price-action, for now Gold is attempting to price a Top within #1,670’s, as expected since this structure is (by the book) Selling signal, but I cannot approach with Selling order as DX is taking strong hits and is Trading below Daily chart's Support, so no calls for me, at least for current session. When Stop-loss point is far away from my entry point (Risk/Reward ratio), I tend to remain on sidelines since reversal on Gold my endanger my capital. However, the movement is within my models and my Selling outlook is unchanged. I would like to note that the fact that Gold is consolidating on the Higher Low’ Upper zone trendline of the former / invalidated Descending Channel and as it is visible, it resembles the last Higher Low’s of the fractal, ready to turn even more downwards. This validates it even more. More specifically with #1,652.80 as the Hourly 4 chart’s Support, if it breaks I am expecting an aggressive Bearish Gap fill at #1,633.80 within #2 sessions (former multi-Month Lower Low’s extension). This #2 sessions horizon coincides with the release of the U.S. Fundamentals, so all the parameters support a speculative downtrend on Gold amplified by a strong upswing on Bond Yields. I have to point out importance of Real Rate Yields priced above #5-Year High’s which should pile even more Selling pressure on Gold. #1,680.80 is level of utmost importance for Buyers and if the market closes the session above the variance, #1,692.80 might be on the cards (less likely). #1,652.80 break will have aim for #1,633.80 Support first then #1,620.80 Support extension. My estimations are pointing that #1,670.80 - #1,680.80 is zone where local Top should be priced in (after Gold well defined the Bottom aswell), however since DX is struggling to make a Bullish comeback, I will await Monday's session to make my move. Remember that Gold's Medium and Long-term trend is Bearish.


My position: As my #1,642.80 Selling breakout point was intact throughout yesterday's session, I have remained without the order and will continue to do so regarding current session since I don't see any Profitable patterns to Trade by. I am comfortable with what's done and my general Trading results, taking an early weekend break without any orders.