Positive technical position, GOLD will pay attention to US PCE

29 באוג׳

Financial markets in general are closely watching key inflation data from the world's largest economy for clues about the scale of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts in September. PCE data by The US release on Friday will also be the main data focus this week.

With an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September almost certain, attention also turns to the pace of future adjustments, and how intense they will be.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, the market is pricing in a 65.5% chance of the US cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September and a 34.5% chance of cutting interest rates by 50 basis points.

Investors are now awaiting US personal consumption expenditures (PCE) data released on Friday.
If Friday's PCE data is lower than expected, it could fuel expectations of a more dovish Fed, creating bullish potential for gold. And even if the PCE is higher than expected, it won't change the outlook for a Fed rate cut in September, so a higher-than-expected increase in PCE would only be temporary. limit the upward momentum of gold prices, or create short-term corrections that do not fundamentally affect the main uptrend.

Analysis of technical prospects for XAUUSD
On the daily chart, gold remains stable with near-term bullish conditions despite a sudden short-term correction yesterday that did not affect the technical uptrend.

The structure has not changed with an uptrend in both the short, medium and long term with the short-term trend being noticed by the price channel and the 21-day moving average (EMA21). The fact that gold remains above the 0.786% Fibonacci extension is a positive factor for the bullish price target noticed by readers in the weekly publication at 2,531 USD in the short term, more than the level of 2,544 USD.

The relative strength index (RSI) is pointing up but has not yet reached the overbought level, showing that there is still a bit more room for price increases. As long as gold remains within the price channel, declines should only be considered a short-term correction and a short-term buying opportunity.

During the day, the technical prospect of gold price increase will be noticed again by the following price levels.
Support: 2,503 – 2,500 – 2,484USD
Resistance: 2,531 – 2,544USD

SELL XAUUSD PRICE 2521 - 2519⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2525

→Take Profit 1 2514
↨
→Take Profit 2 2509

BUY XAUUSD PRICE 2482 - 2484⚡️
↠↠ Stoploss 2478

→Take Profit 1 2489
↨
→Take Profit 2 2494

30 באוג׳

הערה

2 בספט׳

הערה

Gold prices dipped on Monday as the dollar strengthened, while investors awaited key U.S. jobs data to firm their bets on the size of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut expected this month.

2 בספט׳

הערה

The situation becomes even more complicated when considering recent moves by the BoE. Although the BoE has pioneered interest rate cuts, ahead of the Fed, this does not seem to have had the expected effect. Since the interest rate cut on August 1, UK long-term government bond yields have tended to increase, reflecting market skepticism about the effectiveness of current monetary policy.

4 בספט׳

הערה

Gold prices fell to their lowest level in more than a week in the early trading session of September 3, under pressure from a stronger USD, while investors waited for US employment data to determine the scale of interest rate cuts. potential yields at the Fed's September policy meeting.

4 בספט׳

הערה

Gold prices held steady on Wednesday as investors braced for a monthly U.S. payrolls report that could influence how swiftly and deeply the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates this year.

4 בספט׳

הערה

Since the labor market is no longer overheating and both actual and expected inflation are cooling, we expect the FOMC to lower interest rates by 25 bps in each meeting from September to June 2025, this will be followed by two 25 bps cuts in the second half of 2025. This will eventually put interest rates in the range of 3.00-3.25% (previously 3.75-4.00%) by the end of 2025.